In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human forecasters against machine models to predict COVID-19 clinical trials.
A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022
✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited
Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20)
David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19)
David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18)
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17)
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16)
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus
Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack
An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14)
A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13)
Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12)
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11)
✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right
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