Between Optimism and Uncertainty

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on:

• The Blue Chip growth consensus
• Central bank policy rate expectations
• UK data surprises and the BoE
• The impact of Artificial Intelligence
• US business formation and productvity growth
• China's export growth