LME Week, lithium debate, China controls, NMC vs LFP, sodium-ion, ESS boom | Cormac O’Laoire

2025-10-24

In this episode, I (Matt Fernley, Battery Materials Review) sit down with Cormac O’Laoire (Electrios Energy) to dissect what LME Week signals for battery materials and how policy, supply chains and technology choices could shape returns for investors over the next 12–24 months. We compare the sharply divided lithium outlooks we heard in London with on-the-ground demand indicators in China, Europe and the Rest of World, and outline the datapoints I’m watching (especially inventories) before turning more const...

Key topics discussed

- LME Week takeaways: why analyst views on lithium are further apart than I’ve ever seen, and the inventory declines I need to see before calling a turn.

- EV demand mix: China’s scrappage scheme dynamics, BEV vs PHEV trends, and the importance of ROW growth and Chinese exports (e.g., BYD).

- China export controls: implications of restrictions on advanced LFP and graphite; Western exposure to Chinese anode material and the case for building an NMC-led supply chain outside China.

- Funding gap: why lithium, graphite/anode, high-purity manganese and parts of nickel struggle to get financed at current China-linked prices—and where policy tools (e.g., floors) might help.

- Chemistry choices in the West: NMC/MCA vs LFP, and the emerging use of mixed-chemistry packs for performance and cost.

- Sodium-ion reality check: cost/performance hurdles, hard-carbon anode bottlenecks and why SIB scale is likely to stay niche near term vs LFP.

- Graphite spotlight: ExxonMobil’s move into synthetic graphite via Superior Graphite—what it could mean for non-Chinese anode supply if capex and feedstock line up.

- ESS momentum: China’s aggressive multi-year targets, Middle East mega-projects, and the risk of near-term tightness in cells as grid storage scales.

Who should watch: retail investors following lithium, graphite/anode materials, nickel/manganese, cell makers, EV OEMs and grid-scale storage. Expect an even-handed discussion focused on fundamentals, policy and investability rather than hype.

Further reading: Detailed data, charts and monthly commentary are in Battery Materials Review: https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/

#lithium #graphite #batteryMaterials #EVs #energystorage #LFP #NMC #sodiumion #BYD #China #LMEWeek #commodities #investing