The Downside Risks

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern:

• The global growth consensus
• Central bank policy calibration
• Financial market stability
• AI expectation versus reality 
• Global trade disruption
• Geopolitical risks