China & India IN. The USA OUT? Tariffs, Alliances & Supply Chains.

2026-02-06

In episode 313 of China Manufacturing Decoded, hosts Adrian and Renaud look beyond headlines about U.S. tariffs to a bigger shift in global manufacturing politics: many traditional U.S. allies are deepening economic engagement with China while still hedging strategically with the U.S. Against that backdrop, a new U.S.–India tariff deal (18% for most goods, with key exemptions) makes India increasingly attractive as a “China +1” location, especially for consumer electronics, but China remains irreplaceable for early-stage development and deep supply chain...

You should listen because rapid shifts in tariffs, geopolitics, and supply chains are reshaping where products can be made profitably.

Episode Sections:

01:07 – The big question: are U.S. allies turning toward China, or simply hedging?
07:29 – Evidence that many countries are deepening economic ties with China — and why China’s export machine keeps getting stronger.
15:21 – Economics vs. defense: why Europe can engage China commercially while still relying heavily on the U.S. and NATO for security.
19:07 – Why India is the most interesting case after its border clash with China and its earlier “de-risking” push.
24:27 – How the U.S.–India negotiation unfolded and what led to the flat 18% tariff deal.
26:10 – What the deal means for electronics and why India becomes a serious “China + 1” assembly option.
30:08 – India’s new trade win with the EU — zero tariffs for many goods, and why opening will stay gradual.
32:04 – Signs of an India–China thaw: faster customs, pressure to buy Chinese machinery, and the looming EV debate.
34:42 – Practical takeaway for manufacturers: keep China for depth, add India for resilience (and Sofeast’s India capability)