Why do so many billion-dollar projects fail—and how can leaders make better decisions before it’s too late? 🧭
Global mega-project executive Akin Oni joins Orion to unpack decision-making, people, risk, and leadership at the highest stakes.
🧾 Episode Summary
In this episode of The Major Project Podcast, Orion sits down with Akin Oni—global mega-project executive, CEO & Managing Partner of FECs Group, and author of three upcoming books on leadership and capital delivery. W...
Why do so many billion-dollar projects fail—and how can leaders make better decisions before it’s too late? 🧭
Global mega-project executive Akin Oni joins Orion to unpack decision-making, people, risk, and leadership at the highest stakes.
🧾 Episode Summary
In this episode of The Major Project Podcast, Orion sits down with Akin Oni—global mega-project executive, CEO & Managing Partner of FECs Group, and author of three upcoming books on leadership and capital delivery. With more than three decades of experience leading oil & gas, LNG, mining, refining, infrastructure, and M&A-driven projects across six continents, Akin brings a rare blend of technical rigor and human insight to the conversation.
Akin reframes what a mega-project truly is—not just something over a billion dollars, but a human undertaking so large it shapes economies, communities, and national identity. Drawing on global research and lived experience, he explains why only a tiny fraction of mega-projects succeed and identifies three root causes behind most failures: rushing the beginning, underestimating uncertainty, and forgetting that projects are built by people—not spreadsheets.
From there, the conversation dives deep into decision-making before Final Investment Decision (FID)—the phase where most projects quietly fail long before execution begins. Akin explains why the real question is not “Can we build it?” but “Should we build it now, here, with these assumptions and this risk?” He walks through what rigorous project evaluation really requires: market readiness, supply chains, talent availability, regulatory permission, geopolitics, and the true cost of capital.
Akin also unpacks M&A, A&D, and transactions, clarifying the difference between financial deals and the harder work of integration and separation—where culture, systems, and people ultimately determine success. He shares board-level insights on why independent peer reviews matter, how execution bias creeps into decision-making, and why “too big to start” projects often need to be scaled down before they can succeed.
Leadership is a constant thread throughout the episode. Akin introduces his practical frameworks—like Listen → Learn → Lead, and having the right people, in the right number, at the right time—and challenges traditional project-management thinking that focuses only on scope, schedule, and cost. True project success, he argues, is project management success plus product success.
The discussion closes with forward-looking insights on AI in mega-projects, where Akin outlines three real impacts already underway: speed, insight, and execution. AI won’t replace people, he says—but it will replace teams that refuse to use it. He also shares candid advice on career growth, mentorship, global mobility, family life, and why character must rise above résumé in high-stakes leadership roles.
🎧 You’ll Learn
- Why 65–98% of mega-projects miss cost, schedule, or value targets—and how to change that
- The three biggest causes of mega-project failure (and how leaders can counter them)
- How to evaluate whether a project should proceed—not just whether it can
- What boards and executives should ask before approving FID
- The difference between M&A, A&D, and transactions—and why integration matters more than spreadsheets
- A practical framework for people-first project leadership
- Why “license to operate” can stop a project faster than any contractor issue
- How AI is reshaping due diligence, planning, and execution
- Career advice for project professionals: curiosity, steadiness, relationships, and lifelong learning
