Buy Hold Sell: US earnings season and 2 stocks (not Nvidia) that crushed expectations

US earnings season might be over, but the aftershocks are still rippling through markets. Headline numbers looked strong – S&P 500 EPS growth hit 15%, margins touched 15-year highs – yet beneath that glossy surface lies one of the most divided landscapes in years.

In 2025, the market is being pulled in two directions. On one side sits the AI complex, powered by hyperscaler capex that continues to be revised higher. On the other, almost everything tied to the real economy is slowing. Manufacturing is soft. Housing is sluggish. Consumer strength depends entirely on your postcode and pay grade. And in small and mid-caps, earnings beats were met with half the usual upside, while misses were punished with twice the usual downside. Volatility is back, and it’s ferocious.

As Michael Poulsen from Canopy Investors puts it, parts of the economy are still waiting for “a bit more clarity” before they invest again – yet beneath the uncertainty, he’s seeing early signs of life in long-neglected sectors like healthcare. Meanwhile, Nick Markiewicz from Ellerston Capital notes that “if you're not in AI, I'm not sure you're anywhere,” even as he quietly eyes high-quality compounders and homebuilders now trading on GFC-era multiples.

In this episode of Buy Hold Sell, we break down the winners, the warning signs, and the opportunities emerging from a wildly bifurcated reporting season. Plus, our guests reveal two stocks that absolutely crushed expectations.