A deep dive into Toronto GTA Housing 2026: Supply Crunch, Outmigration, and the Missing Middle

TRREB’s 2026 outlook forecasts 60,000–70,000 home sales and average prices around $1.0–$1.03M, while 22% of surveyed households plan to buy next year and nearly half are first‑time buyers—highlighting a stark affordability gap (about $589/month) and rising outmigration driven by prices, taxes, congestion and the appeal of remote work.

Policy responses focus on faster approvals, unlocking public land, infrastructure funding and more “missing middle” housing, but high development charges, construction costs and servicing constraints limit impact; Toronto’s multiplex zoning nudged lot values up only modestly, underscoring the central question for 2026: can the region build the right homes, in the right places, with the right supports to stop the exodus?

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