GGWP 16 w/ Satopää and Salikhov - BIN Model of Forecasting (Bias, Information, Noise)
Every forecaster has wanted to know what the most important factor for improving forecasting accuracy is, but for a long time the answer was not clear. Thanks to a chance overlap of co-authors Ville Satopää and Marat Salikhov at INSEAD, however, a new paper was published alongside forecasting pioneers Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers that does a great job of providing a solution.
Their paper, “Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting,” deconstructs the forecasting process into its component parts of: Information (the inputs you use to move your forecast away from the base rate), Bias (systematic error across a number of forecasts from a single forecaster), and Noise (non-information that is registered as information in a forecast). From there they test which of these parts is most critical to the accuracy of a forecast, and posit methods to improve in these areas.
In this episode we are lucky enough to sit down with Ville and Marat to discuss the origins of this paper, its findings, and the implications for the future of forecasting. We talk about possible avenues for further research based on the exciting results from Ville and Marat’s research, and even speculate on potential applications of the research in new and interesting environments.
The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
GGWP 20 w/ Manas Chawla - London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy
GGWP 19 w/ David McCullough - Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter!
GGWP 18 w/ David Manheim - Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials
GGWP 17 w/ John Fowler: International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting
Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement | The Right Side of Maybe
Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 15 w/ Phillip Orchard - Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods
How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 14 w/ Gaia Dempsey - An Interview with the CEO of Metaculus
GGWP 13 - A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict
GGWP 12 w/ Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast - Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics
GGWP 11 w/ Tom Liptay and Michael Story - Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption
How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 10 - War in Donbass, Peru 2021, and BIN Model of Forecasting
How David Manheim Forecasted COVID Vaccines | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 8 w/ Pavel Atanasov - Good Judgement Project, Markets vs Polls, Machine Forecasting
How Peter Hurford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited | The Right Side of Maybe
GGWP 7 w/ Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results
Copyright © 2006-2021 Podbean.com