Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20)

Do consumers of geopolitical risk reports want accurate forecasts? You would think surely yes, but recurring listeners of our podcast know that in many cases individuals prefer vague verbiage over accountable, quantifiable forecasts. In this week's Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we wanted an answer, so we spoke with Manas Chawla, founder and CEO of London Politica–a student-run pro-bono political risk organization based out of London.

Manas founded London Politica in 2020 during the pandemic when he noticed an accessibility problem in the geopolitical risk industry. Today, the geopolitical industry resembles an oligopoly: there is a small handful of large firms that retain the largest clients and drive trends. The issue is that the fees which these firms charge are often too lofty for the massive pool of SMBs and independent business owners around the world. And that’s where London Politica comes in. Run by students who provide new and innovative perspectives on the world of geopolitics, London Politica provides geopolitical risk services and thought leadership at affordable prices to a diverse world of clients.

Today Manas will walk us through how he founded his firm which boasts 70 analysts in 20 countries with backgrounds from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, and clients such as Global Citizen. And to make this all more impressive, Manas is currently a student at the London School of Economics where he is studying International Relations. We'll also talk with Manas about the role geopolitical forecasts play in geopolitical risk, and how the future of the two might look.

Note: This podcast was recorded on August 31, 2021.