Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rOGGdq -
Today, we look at the impact across markets after Friday saw the US warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, an intention Russia denies. German Chancellor Scholz is headed for Kyiv today and to Moscow tomorrow for talks. The headline risk has been ratcheted sharply higher with the latest escalation in tensions, and market participants will need to tread carefully. We also look at Russia's global weight in key commodities and look at the event risk calendars for the week ahead, as traders will also struggle to disentangle geopolitical tensions with concern on how rapidly policymakers intend to tighten financial conditions. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Equities throwing down the gauntlet, how will Fed respond?
US yields jump, capping complacency
Soft CPI revives risk rally, but treasury reaction creates dissonance.
When is the great disinflation bet derailed?
Bears finally get a hook
The market is not for turning
Market complacency and the 2008 parallels.
Market is not ready for stagflation
Yield pop elicits complacent shrug from equities
Taiwan tensions and a possible market pivot
Financial conditions in the driver’s seat
Careful what you wish for, market.
Market indulges in risk-on after weak Powell pushback
Leaning against the market’s lean into FOMC
VIX below 25 with this backdrop? You must be kidding...
Huge week ahead on earnings and Fed guidance
USD breakout, commodities plunging, and equities love ’junk’
RBA hikes and inflation trades are back
Recession fears are pulling commodities and bond yields lower
Diving commodities prices the driver.
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