Yet Another Value Podcast

Anek Capital's Orel Levy's Cellebrite Thesis $CLBT

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Orel Levy of Anek Capital to discuss Cellebrite (ticker: CLBT). The conversation explores Cellebrite’s digital forensics tools, from cracking phones to managing and analyzing data. Orel provides a comprehensive overview of Cellebrite's business model, competitive positioning, and potential for growth. Topics include their shift to a SaaS model, the federal sector's role, AI integration, competitive threats like Palantir, and the company’s broader strategic outlook. They also touch on risks, including execution challenges, management turnover, and potential M&A speculation. Tune in to understand why Cellebrite is at the intersection of technology, law enforcement, and investing.If you're interested in the CLBT trata call mentioned during the podcast, see: https://www.trytrata.com/clbt____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and sponsor mention[00:03:13] Cellebrite's history and pivot[00:06:08] Phone cracking explained[00:07:18] R&D moat and customer stickiness[00:08:40] Valuation versus growth peers[00:09:52] SPAC history and misunderstood model[00:13:41] iPhone cracking and misconceptions[00:15:03] Apple, Google cooperation risk[00:16:29] Growth potential and market size[00:21:27] Management turnover and CEO plans[00:27:38] Sale speculation and strategic fit[00:30:49] Mission-critical usage example[00:31:51] Federal budget and deployments[00:33:52] Event-driven budget growth potential[00:37:47] Guardian, Pathfinder, cloud ramping[00:42:58] Long-term risks: execution concerns[00:50:43] AI: neutral impact for now[00:53:39] Suncorp ownership and sale pressure[00:57:46] Ethics and private sector risks[01:00:00] Wrap-up and future conversationsLinks:If you're interested⁠ in the CLBT trata call mentioned during the podcast⁠, see: https://www.trytrata.com/clbtYet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Softwar: An Intimate Portrait of Larry Ellison and Oracle $ORCL (Fintwit Book Club July 2025)

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast Book Club, host Andrew Walker is joined by Byrne Hobart of The Diff to explore Softwar, the 2003 biography of Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison. Together, they dissect the contradictions of Ellison's public and private personas, Oracle's aggressive sales culture, and the book's surprisingly prescient predictions about tech's future. They reflect on ERP nightmares, Oracle's early brushes with collapse, and its surprisingly fertile alumni network. The conversation probes the blurred line between visionary leadership and red flags, while tracing Ellison’s uncanny resemblance to figures like Elon Musk. From petty footnotes to PR plays, it's a sharp look into one of tech’s most enduring empires._______________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to the podcast and book.[00:01:48] Byrne joins the episode.[00:01:49] Quick disclaimer on investment advice.[00:02:37] Skipping the boating sections in book.[00:03:30] Initial thoughts on Oracle in 2003.[00:04:00] Larry Ellison's personality contradictions.[00:05:45] Oracle's sales tactics and benchmark claims.[00:07:00] Predictions on mobile and distributed systems.[00:08:44] ERP transition challenges explained.[00:10:03] Reasons to bet against Oracle.[00:12:04] Oracle’s management style and red flags.[00:14:23] Intelligence connections and conspiracies.[00:15:54] Government ID advocacy post-9/11.[00:17:24] Comparing Larry Ellison to Elon Musk.[00:19:45] Book’s structure and humorous footnotes.[00:22:55] Seibel rivalry and Oracle acquisitions.[00:25:11] PR's role in Oracle’s strategy.[00:26:40] Market perceptions and quarterly focus.[00:30:03] Importance of sell-side analysts back then.[00:31:29] Anecdotes about market cap drops.[00:33:48] Oracle’s executive alumni shaping tech.[00:36:23] Differences in tech executive pipelines.[00:38:51] GE's internal business training system.[00:41:09] Ellison’s hiring practices and red flags.[00:44:05] PeopleSoft DOJ case and hypocrisy.[00:46:43] Safra Katz’s rise at Oracle.[00:49:19] Oracle’s leadership transition dynamics.[00:51:54] Book's narrative style and structure.[00:52:56] Author’s omission of Ellison’s childhood.[00:55:13] Ellison’s charisma and software predictions.[00:58:33] Ellison’s lasting influence and vision.[00:59:45] Tease for next month’s book selection.Links:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Kingdom Capital's David Bastian on United Natural Foods $UNFI

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back David Bastian of Kingdom Capital to analyze United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI), a grocery distributor at the center of a complex turnaround story. They examine UNFI’s legacy issues, including its troubled SuperValu merger, the fallout from over-earning during COVID, and a recent cyberattack. David discusses management's new strategic direction, margin normalization efforts, and the implications of UNFI’s critical relationship with Whole Foods and Amazon. They also explore valuation frameworks, industry dynamics, and UNFI’s potential path to sustainable earnings growth under improved leadership.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:34] What is UNFI[00:03:45] History and UNFI challenges[00:09:24] Cyberattack and recovery[00:10:47] Impact on Whole Foods[00:14:30] Long-term EBITDA targets[00:18:37] Sell-side doubts[00:21:08] Peer margin comparisons[00:24:19] Amazon relationship[00:30:17] Margin paradox[00:34:02] Business asset value[00:40:21] Return on replacement cost[00:43:37] Inflation effects[00:45:18] Industry consolidation[00:48:58] Board ownership concerns[00:54:58] Final thoughts on UNFI[00:58:47] Simplified supplier agreements[00:59:17] Podcast close and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Random Ramblings July 2025

In this July 2025 episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his latest market reflections. He opens with sharp takes on the speculative surge in crypto-linked equities and questions about hidden leverage. Andrew dissects the potential rise of a new SPAC bubble and lays out a hedge strategy using SPACs at trust value. He then transitions into a deep dive on pattern recognition in investing—its power, its risks, and when it turns into harmful stubbornness. From Warren Buffett’s historical lens to Talon Energy and personal investing biases, Andrew probes how past experiences shape investor behavior. The episode closes with musings on CEO arrogance and the importance of open dialogue. As always, Andrew invites feedback and thoughtful conversation from listeners.____________________________________________________________[0:00:00] Intro and episode overview[0:01:21] Sponsor message and host greeting[0:02:01] Recording issues and July intro[0:02:54] Casino market and Bitcoin premiums[0:08:07] Leverage signs and Tesla example[0:08:56] SPAC bubble and trust value[0:10:28] Market views and SPAC options[0:12:58] Pattern recognition in investing[0:16:58] Buffett’s experience and pattern use[0:20:58] Pattern vs. stubbornness examples[0:27:21] Talon Energy hesitation explained[0:34:03] Overreliance on old investment patterns[0:37:23] Industry arrogance and founder syndrome[0:41:36] Why Andrew does these ramblesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Midyear 2025 podcast ideas updates

In this solo update, host Andrew Walker revisits his three 2025 stock ideas (disclosure: long all three!): Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Keros Therapeutics (KROS), and Full House Resorts (FLL). He breaks down Sage’s acquisition by SUPN and the chance of a higher bid from Biogen, discusses Keros’ announced capital return, and digs into why Full House Resorts has lagged so far despite promising insider buying and strong project progress. Andrew also highlights why active shareholder engagement still matters and how insider moves can reveal conviction.For links to the prior podcast ideas and open letter, please see this post: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/midyear-2025-podcast-ideas-updatesChapters[00:00:00] Andrew opens midyear update.[00:01:00] Recaps Sage, Keros, Full House.[00:07:33] Sage sold, Biogen topping bid?[00:14:27] Keros capital return progress is slow.[00:18:44] Full House lagging; insider buying.[00:27:59] CEO massive buy from ex-wife.[00:30:30] Refinancing risk key catalyst ahead.Links:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer