The Dividend Cafe

Monday - April 13, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cmGmIS In this Monday Dividend Cafe, David recaps a volatile session in which futures fell 400–500 points after Iran negotiations failed, then markets rallied into the close as investors weighed a new U.S. strategy: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz aimed at halting Iranian trade and forcing reopening. Oil spiked about 8% overnight but ended up roughly 1.5% to around $98, while estimates suggest the blockade could cost Iran about $275M/day in exports and $150M/day in imports. Bahnsen expects continued volatility and notes a tariff threat tied to arms sales to Iran was not taken seriously by markets. He also reviews CPI (3.3% headline, 2.6% core; gasoline up 21% MoM), weak existing home sales, uncertainty around Fed leadership and rate cuts, why U.S. producers focus on futures pricing, and the start of earnings season, with an AI-focused episode planned Friday. 00:00 Market Whiplash Recap 00:43 Iran Blockade Strategy 01:35 Oil Spike and Volatility 02:59 Blockade Costs and Outlook 04:05 Inflation and Tariff Talk 04:55 Housing Market Check 05:24 Fed Uncertainty and Rates 06:25 Why US Oil Output Lags 07:19 Earnings and AI Preview 07:39 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What’s Next in Iran and Markets?

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4c53g8A David Bahnsen reviews a volatile market week dominated by headlines around an Iran war and a newly announced two‑week ceasefire, noting that markets largely “didn’t buy” extreme rhetoric and then rallied sharply on ceasefire news amid oil price swings and rapid trader unwinds. He argues key terms remain unclear (Strait of Hormuz activity, enforcement, nuclear capability, enriched uranium, regional actors), and expects zigs and zags that could mean more volatility, while concluding the president appears biased toward ending the conflict sooner, potentially via concessions. Bahnsen emphasizes that short-term market moves are not sustainable signals and urges investors toward “non-action”: a properly constructed portfolio should not change because of Iran. He expects oil to settle higher than pre-war, an ambiguous economic backdrop, double‑digit earnings already priced in, AI returning to focus, and a “muddle through” market with high valuations. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:24 Markets React to War Headlines 03:37 Ceasefire Uncertainty and Open Questions 08:52 Investor Expectations and Volatility 11:58 Why Headlines Mislead Markets 13:31 Portfolio Discipline Through Conflict 14:19 Five Takeaways for Markets 16:39 Post Iran Market Themes 18:10 Closing Thoughts and Next Week Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - April 9, 2026

In this April 9 Dividend Cafe Weekly Market Commentary, Brian Szytel recaps markets following a strong prior-day rally with notable breadth (about 82% of NYSE names advancing), then discusses how Iran/Israel/Lebanon developments and ceasefire talks are contributing to a tenuous market backdrop despite continued gains across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq. He reviews moves in yields and oil, including a sharp prior-day drop and a rebound, and explains the strategic and longer-term economic implications of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed. Seitel also answers a common question on the VIX as a measure of expected volatility and a potential contrarian indicator rather than a timing tool. He closes with key data points: February PCE inflation, jobless claims, weaker personal income, personal spending, and a lower final revision to Q4 GDP. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Rally and Breadth 00:43 Geopolitics Driving Sentiment 01:46 Oil Shock and Ceasefire Talks 02:32 Strait Closure Stakes 03:11 Long Term Global Workarounds 04:12 What the VIX Means 05:08 Key Economic Data Rundown 06:10 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - April 8, 2026

Brian Szytel recaps a record rally on Wednesday, April 8, with the Dow up 2.85% (1325 points), S&P 500 up 2.5%, and Nasdaq up 2.8%, driven by news of a two-week U.S. extension for Iran negotiations tied to a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that sent WTI oil down 16%, helping CPI and Fed futures price in greater odds of rate cuts; bonds also rallied slightly with the 10-year ending near 4.30%. He notes the S&P has risen six straight sessions and is within ~3% of its January closing high, argues investors must stay invested through headline-driven volatility, and discusses ongoing strategic risks around Iran’s control of shipping lanes and implications for global GDP. He answers a question on who is most affected by Hormuz disruptions, citing Bahrain as most vulnerable and Kuwait as better buffered by sovereign wealth funds, and highlights March FOMC minutes showing concerns about higher inflation and softening labor. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:26 Oil Shock and Fed Bets 01:38 Staying Invested Through Volatility 02:38 Strait Strategy and Risks 03:18 Who Gets Hit Hardest 04:24 Global GDP Lens 04:56 FOMC Minutes and Wrap 05:18 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - April 7, 2026

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe from West Palm Beach on April 7, noting low market volume and heightened geopolitical risk tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz, with markets down about 1%, 10-year yields up slightly, and oil prices higher. He shifts to fundamentals, highlighting forward operating margins near 19.7%, the highest in index history, and argues that while higher energy costs may pressure margins, profitability provides resilience despite a roughly 7% pullback from highs. He discusses convergence in EPS growth between the “Mag 7” and the other S&P 493, helping explain rotation, with multiple compression in Mag 7 and expansion elsewhere. Economic data showed durable goods orders missing expectations. On AI layoffs, he says lower Fed funds aims to spur demand but can’t address structural, technology-driven labor shifts. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:21 Geopolitical Risk Moves Markets 00:54 Earnings And Margin Strength 02:23 Mag Seven Rotation Shift 03:17 Durable Goods Economic Check 03:42 AI Layoffs And Fed Policy 05:46 Wrap Up And Next Steps Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com