Episodes
Episodes
Friday May 03, 2024
Has the tide turned for USD/JPY?
Friday May 03, 2024
Friday May 03, 2024
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Andrea Hayward, Vice President of the Japanese Client Sales Group for EMEA in London, discuss the fallout from a volatile week for USD/JPY.
What have been the main drivers behind the sharp correction lower for USD/JPY?
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday May 03, 2024
EU Green Deal Push(back)
Friday May 03, 2024
Friday May 03, 2024
EU parliamentary elections in June are fast approaching and the decibels of debate surrounding the Green Deal legislation are rising. Certain investors have suggested that a shift in political attention away from the Green Deal and that recent pushback and watering down of some regulation is negative for climate action in Europe.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), discusses this shift in focus and whether this is a reflection of a broader ESG pushback, or whether a shift in narrative mindset is warranted to ensure a successful implementation post June’s EU parliamentary elections.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Wednesday May 01, 2024
Wednesday May 01, 2024
This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through what to expect at the May FOMC meeting. We believe that QT will be tapered while the Fed will start to acknowledge that real rates are too restrictive. Our base case is that Chair Powell will say tightening is working, but they are being mindful of the long and variable lags. Also, on the slightly more hawkish side, Chair Powell will likely reiterate that the FOMC lacks confidence on future inflation path and is not ready to commit to the timing on rate cuts. Lastly, George briefly highlights why we are still focused on and worried about the ongoing macro divergences in U.S. economic data and that the economy looks stronger due to fiscal policy.
Friday Apr 26, 2024
BoJ policy outlook and why the MoF has not yet intervened
Friday Apr 26, 2024
Friday Apr 26, 2024
After today’s BoJ policy meeting and the heavy yen selling, Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities, talks to Chris Jakubowski, Director – Institutional FX Sales, about the BoJ policy outlook ahead following the meeting and the fallout in the FX market with the yen hitting new lows.
Why has the MoF not yet intervened to halt yen selling? Tune in to listen to Chris and Derek’s discussion.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East have been an important driver of the FX market over the past week. Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst talks to Michael Owen, Head of Global Client Desk EMEA, about how geopolitical risks are impacting MUFG’s outlook for the FX market and how the BoJ’s upcoming policy meeting could impact JPY performance in the week ahead.
Friday Apr 19, 2024
Friday Apr 19, 2024
It has been a tense week in the Middle East following the attack on Israel by Iran in the early hours of 14 April.
Ehsan Khoman, Head of Research – Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets (EMEA), contextualises the current level of geopolitical risk premium that is currently priced into global markets, and how this could evolve with the various scenarios that may transpire from the crisis.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
Friday Apr 12, 2024
FX lull ends signalling USD gains ahead
Friday Apr 12, 2024
Friday Apr 12, 2024
This week saw the FX markets come back to life after a long period of lull with a sharp appreciation of the US dollar. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research, Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to Simon Mayes, Head of UK, Ireland and Switzerland Corporate Sales about the implications for the US dollar outlook following the US inflation data and the ECB policy announcement. Derek also discusses the JPY intervention prospects next week and beyond and provides an update on MUFG FX Research trading views.
Friday Apr 05, 2024
Is the USD poised for a bullish break out?
Friday Apr 05, 2024
Friday Apr 05, 2024
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, Currency Analyst, discuss the recent performance of the USD which has benefitted from the paring back of Fed rate cut expectations.
Will the release of the latest US inflation data for March encourage the Fed to delay rate cuts until 2H of this year?
Tuesday Apr 02, 2024
Tuesday Apr 02, 2024
This week George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks through the ever evolving reaction function from the Fed, where George isn’t terribly concerned about the recent Fed hawkish comments. George feels that this has been standard operating procedure, where the Fed tries to calibrate their message after a FOMC meeting.
What we learned at the March FOMC is still important, the Fed is increasingly focused on their dual-mandate and will react to labor market weakness just as it would to changes for the path for inflation. George also walked through a special topic theme from the latest Macro2Markets Monthly report, the topic being how healthy is the consumer and are there signs of the wealth effect at work post the recent large rally in financial assets. Lastly George gave a mini-NFP preview.
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Three Key Takeaways for the FX Markets
Friday Mar 22, 2024
Friday Mar 22, 2024
At the end of an event-filled week for the financial markets Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities runs through with Shan Husain, Vice President Institutional Investors FX Sales EMEA, the key takeaways for the US dollar and other FX pairs.
Derek also looks ahead to what will be in focus for the markets going forward. Derek also provides an update on MUFG Research trade views.
Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Each week MUFG's expert economists, analysts, and strategists provide global market research content covering macro, FX, commodities rates and more.
Rate, review and subscribe for the most authoritative and insightful analysis of the latest financial market themes.
Listen to the EMEA Team (Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Ehsan Khoman) on Fridays; Takahiro Sekido in Tokyo on Tuesdays; and the US Team (George Goncalves on Wednesdays; Glenn Schultz on the first Thursday of each month; and Tom Joyce and Capital Markets Strategy Group on a quarterly basis).