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Global Guessing Podcasts

Global Guessing Podcasts

News:Politics

✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right

✅ How Superforecaster Tom Liptay Got COVID Right

2021-04-29
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How does a world-renowned superforecaster compare to public health experts when forecasting the future of the pandemic? We spoke with one to find out. Tom Liptay is a PhD, CPA, investor, and superforecaster with Good Judgement Project. Amongst the top forecasters, he is among the top-ranked. Tom co-founded Maby, a platform that provides companies and organizations with the requisite tools to make quality forecasts for their business, or other exogenous issues to their operations.

In episode 3 of The Right Side of Maybe, we talked to Tom about a series of Covid-19-related predictions he made on Maby and how they compared with public health experts'. Tom shared a lot of useful insights for new and expert forecasters alike looking to make better, more valuable predictions.

Find Tom's predictions here: https://www.maby.app/covid/

Website: https://globalguessing.com/​​

view more

More Episodes

A Conversation on Media Narratives and Forecasting the Russo-Ukrainian Crisis with Maxim Lott
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Tom Chivers on Nuance, Numeracy, and Forecasting in News Media
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Tina Fordham on Political Risk, Geopolitical Forecasting, and Top Risks of 2022
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✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited
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Forecasting the Omicron Variant with Juan Cambeiro
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The GGWP Finale: (almost) A Year of Global Guessing (Ep. 21/21)
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Manas Chawla on London Politica, Geopolitical Risk, and Forecast Accuracy (GGWP 20)
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David McCullough on Why Good Forecasting Questions Matter! (GGWP 19)
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David Manheim on Pandemic Preparedness and 💉 Challenge Trials (GGWP 18)
2021-10-17 144
John Fowler on International Intrigue, Limits of Geopolitical Forecasting (GGWP 17)
2021-07-11 234
✅ Juan Cambeiro, the Top Pandemic Forecaster on Good Judgement
2021-07-08 161
Satopää and Salikhov on Bias, Information, and Noise Model of Forecasting (GGWP 16)
2021-07-03 181
✅ Datscilly, the Top-Ranked Forecaster on Metaculus
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Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)
2021-06-05 124
✅ How Superforecaster Carolyn Meinel Predicted the 2001 Code Red Worm Attack
2021-06-03 106
An Interview with Gaia Dempsey, CEO of Metaculus (GGWP 14)
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A Metaculus Mondays Special | 2021 Israel-Palestine Conflict (GGWP 13)
2021-05-18 66
Michael Hilliard of The Ride Line Podcast on Afghanistan, Donbass, and Beijing Olympics (GGWP 12)
2021-05-08 78
Tom Liptay and Michael Story on Founding Maby & Forecasting Adoption (GGWP 11)
2021-05-01 93
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