Markets Happy Hour Podcast - January 2, 2025 - A Chill In the Air for the New Year

In today's slightly shorter New Year edition we reflect on a chilly start to the year - both literally and metaphorically. The New Year's Eve terrorist attack in New Orleans in the US was a chilling reminder of the near-shoring of overseas terror, while the death of President Jimmy Carter at 100 crowded out some of the chatter around the incoming President Trump.

Otherwise all forecasts are centering on Maganomics, and the future looks bleak according to the 222 economists surveyed, not only for the US but especially for its trading partners. We should caution, however, that many economists predicted a recession in 2024 that did not come to pass.

The ongoing volatility in bonds suggests that fixed income investors continue to be concerned, whether about the budget deficits or coming spending, and this begs the question as to whether central banks actually have the control they used to - or whether control is waning - can monetary policy actually move the needle - to stimulate the economy (as is needed in the UK and the Eurozone) or to choke off activity - as was intended with the recent run up in rates.

We then turn to whether the Fed can be accused of flip flopping, due to its strict data dependency, when data has, admittedly, been quite varied, and without a particular patter. So a lot more questions than answers this week, but that is a good, open-minded way to approach the year.