Alternative Visions - The Global Economy’s Growing Fragility
Dr. Rasmus reviews the current state of the global economy, discussing sectors where it’s slowing and growing financially more fragile. Quotes from JM Morgan, Forbes, Moody’s, Merrill Lynch surveys, IMF, and even other mainstream economists all predict a global recession coming 2020. Rasmus explains why it may be sooner, in late 2019. In Europe, the factors of Brexit, Italy, Euro banks weakness, ECB policy and US-Euro trade suggest a weakening further beyond a Euro slowdown already in progress. Emerging markets problems with currency decline, capital flight, and central bank rate hikes are not going away and portend spreading and deepening recessions. The IMF’s EME bailout problem. A review of China and So. Korea efforts to re-stimulate their economies. China’s recent 6.5% GDP and problems with 30% stock market contraction underway as property and asset markets’ prices fall. China’s further problems with $6T in business debt, its trade dispute with US impact, slowing real investment as it crackdowns on shadow banks and speculators. China’s recent monetary stimulus and coming fiscal stimulus via tax cuts. Rasmus concludes with an early view of US GDP, being driven mostly by defense spending under Trump; how tax cuts aren’t ‘paying for themselves’; and a quick listing of weak sectors of US economy about to grow weaker. (Next week: ‘The Limits of Liberal Art in the Age of Trump’—plays, films, and celebrity lectures).
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