9: The Israel-Iran Conflict and Oil Market Uncertainty

Conflict in the Middle East is shaking the global oil market. In this episode of “The Energy Forum,” Abhi Rajendran, a nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies and director of research and advisory at Energy Intelligence, speaks with Skip York, a Center for Energy Studies nonresident fellow and expert in global market dynamics and upstream strategy, about how escalating geopolitical risk has elevated concerns about global oil supply and is driving oil price volatility.

Together, they discuss this and more to facilitate a better understanding of a very dynamic market.

Topics include:

• What recent Israel-Iran escalations mean for global oil flows.
• How markets are pricing risk and uncertainty.
• OPEC+ policy moves and whether more barrels will materialize.
• Why U.S. shale supply may have plateaued.
• The evolving shape of China’s oil demand.
• What oil prices might look like in late 2025 and into 2026.

This conversation was recorded on June 16, 2025.

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