Big Government, Big Business, Big Labor

This post is an excerpt from a video originally shared with VP clients on October 11, 2024. Link to original video here. To gain access to more of our research, contact us here.

* Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Scott Freeman (Director of Asset Allocation)

* The likely holding pattern until the US election makes it a good time to revisit our key structural (2-3y+) themes and their investment implications.

* Fiscal deficits and greater government involvement will be a feature, not a bug, in the coming decades as moral obligations (e.g. social security, national security) have locked us into heavy future spending.

* Industrial policies are mostly motivated by geopolitics and strategic competition. We are in a world that prioritizes security over efficiency. As geopolitical tensions rise, governments will continue to provide a relatively price-intensive source of demand for companies that offer the materials, tools, and infrastructure needed to support escalating geopolitical competition.

* US housing has seen an extended period of underbuilding, creating a structural supply-demand mismatch specifically in entry-level single-family housing in the US.

* Investment implications: long real assets, gold, energy, TIPS, US homebuilders. Avoid US nominal bonds. 

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