Today’s episode of The Money Path delivered a sharp, macro-driven breakdown of what markets should—and shouldn’t—take from the latest jobs report.
Host Todd M. Schoenberger was joined by Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at Globalt Investments, to unpack why the report’s mixed signals are unlikely to trigger meaningful Fed cuts on their own. Thomas explained that inflation, debt levels, and the individual views of Fed policymakers will likely matter more than any single data point—and that the Fed may still only cut modestly (potentially 25 bps) even as growth cools.
The conversation also tackled the White House’s plan to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, with Thomas warning that lower rates alone won’t fix affordability when housing supply remains constrained. On markets, he emphasized that 2026 performance will depend less on Fed speculation and more on fundamentals—especially earnings growth, productivity, and global conditions.
Thomas outlined a potential rotation away from mega-cap tech and toward cyclical stocks if earnings materialize, while also weighing in on key commodity themes. He noted that oil’s collapse from $80 to $50 has created extremely bearish sentiment—often a setup worth watching—and pointed to refiners like Valero as an area investors may want to consider. He also discussed Globalt’s positioning in gold, silver, and miners, and why rising global resource redundancy and self-sufficiency trends could keep demand for physical assets and industrial metals like copper elevated.
Finally, Thomas addressed the potential market volatility around an upcoming Supreme Court tariff ruling, arguing that while the headlines may shake markets, the true economic impact could be more muted due to reduced tariff levels and the administration’s strategic use of scarce items like rare earths.
If you’re looking for a clear-eyed investing framework for 2026—spanning Fed policy, rotation, commodities, and geopolitical/tariff risk—this episode is worth watching.
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