On February 1st 2021, the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar military began a coup d’etat against the democratically-elected government, which was led by the National League for Democracy (or NLD) just before elected officials from the November 2020 elections could be sworn in. Since then, Myanmar has been largely controlled by a military junta, who continue to struggle against multiple ethnically-aligned armies dispersed throughout the country. Some countries in the region have refused to recognize the junta, but the People’s Republic of China called the coup simply a “major cabinet reshuffle” and accelerated their military trade with the junta while decrying Western sanctions on the country as escalatory measures, even going so far as to veto a security council resolution condemning the coup alongside Russia.
China’s approach to relations with Myanmar since the coup have been evolving swiftly, especially since the recent Operation 1027, a large offensive staged by the ethnic armed forces coalition known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance on October 27th 2023. The losses by the junta during the operation revealed their control of the country to be more tenuous than Beijing might have expected and exemplify the complex factors going into China’s decision-making approach to the conflict.
For this episode, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Jason Tower, the country director for the Burma program at the United States Institute for Peace. Tower has over 20 years of experience working in conflict and security issues in China and Southeast Asia, including analysis on cross-border investments, conflict dynamics, and organized crime in the region. He worked previously in Beijing and is a former Fulbright research student and Harvard-Yenching fellow.
Timestamps
[02:07] China’s Interest in the Myanmar Conflict
[05:48] China’s Engagement with Parties in Myanmar
[12:48] Impact of China’s Brokered Ceasefires
[20:30] Credibility of China in Southeast Asia
[25:15] Myanmar in the US-China Relationship
Xi Jinping and China's Techno-Industrial Drive
China's Expanding Ties with Latin America and the Caribbean
Illiberal Effects of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment
Article 23: Implications for Hong Kong
Transatlantic Perspectives on China: Consensus and Divergence
China's Diplomacy in the Israel-Hamas War and Red Sea Crisis
Flashpoints in the US-China Relationship
China’s Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference: Implications for PRC Foreign Policy
Beijing’s Response to Taiwan’s Election
How Domestic Politics are Shaping US-China Relations
Balancing Assurances and Threats in the Case of Taiwan: A conversation with Bonnie Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, and Thomas Christensen
EU-China Relations on the Eve of the 24th Bilateral Summit
China’s Response to the Israel-Hamas War
China’s Military Diplomacy and its Quest for Bases Abroad
The Philippines-China Row Heats Up
Unpacking China’s New Standard Map
BRICS in China's Foreign Policy Agenda
Shakeup in PLA Rocket Force
Centrality of Artificial Intelligence in US-China Competition
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