The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's...
The Iran deal is dead again, ships are getting hit in the Gulf, and the ten year is back above four point five five. Marty and John sort through the latest Middle East escalation, why both sides actually want the conflict to keep going, and what it means for oil, LNG, and bond volatility. They dig into Japan's thirty year yield highs and the delicate balance the BOJ is walking, Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's industrial policy in the New York Times, and why the MOVE index might matter more than the absolute rate level. They also cover Circle's bank charter approval, the OpenUSD consortium bringing Wall Street and Silicon Valley together around the digital dollar, and the growing turf war over who gets to run America's strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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In this episode:
- Iran deal collapses again and the incentive to keep fighting
- Trump wants to be the paid guardian of the Strait of Hormuz
- Ten year yields jumping and what the MOVE index is saying
- Qatar pauses LNG ramp and European gas spikes
- Japan bond yields hit thirty year highs
- Mohamed El-Erian vouching for Bessent's doctrine
- Circle gets OCC approval despite bank lobbying
- OpenUSD and the digital dollar consortium
- Treasury versus Commerce over the Bitcoin reserve
- America's lead as the Bitcoin superpower
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Beach banter and summer grind
00:01:09 - Iran deal dead again
00:01:36 - Iran attacks ships and Trump ends the MOU
00:02:18 - Incentives to keep fighting
00:03:09 - Guardian of the Strait
00:04:05 - Ten year yields jump
00:05:25 - MOVE index and bond volatility
00:09:21 - Qatar LNG disruption
00:11:54 - Japan yields at thirty year highs
00:16:56 - Mohamed El-Erian on Bessent
00:19:32 - Circle gets bank charter approval
00:22:25 - OpenUSD digital dollar consortium
00:26:55 - Treasury versus Commerce over SBR
00:29:35 - America the Bitcoin superpower
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