What if the biggest risk to the S&P 500 isn’t a recession, rates, or geopolitics — but the way we invest?Amber Kanwar sits down with Michael Green, Portfolio Manager & Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management , to unpack a provocative — and deeply unsettling — idea: under certain conditions, the S&P 500 could theoretically go to zero. Not because every company fails, but because market structure breaks.Green explains how the explosive growth of passive investing has quietly changed how markets behave, why flo...
What if the biggest risk to the S&P 500 isn’t a recession, rates, or geopolitics — but the way we invest?
Amber Kanwar sits down with Michael Green, Portfolio Manager & Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management , to unpack a provocative — and deeply unsettling — idea: under certain conditions, the S&P 500 could theoretically go to zero. Not because every company fails, but because market structure breaks.
Green explains how the explosive growth of passive investing has quietly changed how markets behave, why flows now matter more than fundamentals, and how index-driven buying can amplify momentum on the way up — and instability on the way down. Drawing on his famously prescient call on the collapse of the XIV volatility ETF, Green walks through the math behind systemic “zero events,” why they become self-catalyzing, and why policymakers — not individual investors — ultimately own this risk.
The conversation also dives into gold and commodities as flow-driven markets, the role demographics play in shaping inflation and asset prices, and why machines — not humans — may be the dominant drivers of future demand. Green lays out why electricity-hungry systems like data centers are reshaping commodity demand, why traditional “human food” commodities face long-term headwinds, and how structural shortages can quietly drive inflation higher.
In Pro Picks, Green explains how these themes are expressed through ETFs managed by Simplify Asset Management. He walks through the Simplify High-Yield ETF (CDX) and how its structure emphasizes endogenous cash flow, outlines how the Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA) uses a systematic trend-following approach to navigate volatile, flow-driven markets, and discusses how the Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF (HARD) is designed to capture broad commodity trends, including rising demand for machine-driven resources like electricity. He also breaks down the role of gold as a flow-dominated asset and explains how the Simplify Gold Strategy Plus Income ETF (YGLD) is structured to generate income while helping cushion downside through options.
This is not a call to panic — it’s a framework for understanding the hidden mechanics shaping today’s markets, and the extreme tail risks most investors never consider.
Timestamps
00:00 show trailer
02:20 Show intro
04:00 How Michael became the anti-passive investing guy
09:00 A systemic risk lurking inside index funds
13:20 The story of XIV, why it failed and why Michael got it right
20:20 Is policy needed to fix the problem with passive?
22:20 The S&P 500 could theoretically go to zero
25:20 What do Michael’s well-known colleagues think about his view
27:00 But isn’t discernment alive and well in the market?
29:35 Gold, flows and why Michael isn’t focused on specific companies
33:20 Can investors get away from the systemic risk?
36:10 In 15 years half of the boomers will have passed on
41:20 How Michael developed his approach to markets
47:20 Michael’s Pro Picks (CDX, HARD, CTA, YGLD)
Sponsors
For over 25 years, Raymond James has been helping Canadians achieve their financial goals. Visit https://raymondjames.ca today to discover how you can live a life well planned.
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. Visit https://ATB.com/inthemoney for more information
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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