US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth

As a newly installed chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve, US monetary policy remains uncertain amid a soft inflation print and escalating tensions in the Middle East. David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research, forecasts the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year before cutting its policy rate in 2027. He also unpacks the factors driving US inflation, highlights the surprising resilience of the US labor market, and explains why he expects US GDP to expand around 2% this year.

Recorded on July 20, 2026.

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