Four Drivers That Could Crash or Save the Market in 2026 feat. Head of US Macro at Wellington

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We're two weeks into the new year and you can already toss all the consensus forecasts out the window. We sat down with Mike Medeiros to talk about the big risks to all the predictions: from equities to interest rates, the yield curve, currencies, credit markets, and more, so we can understand where the next big moves will come from.

Mike gives us a thoughtful framework within which to understand why he's still constructive on equities for the first half of the year, pointing to a mix of fiscal support, accommodative funding conditions, tailwinds from deregulation, and increased certainty around trade policy. From there though, we explore the big risks to the bond market that remain despite the fact that the yield curve may still structurally be too flat. 

What does an increasingly politicized Federal Reserve mean for the front end? It might be the opposite of what you'd suspect from the headlines. And why is term premium at the crux of every conversation?

We also tackle the "affordability" conversation head on, including the headline proposal to cap credit card interest rates in the near term, as well as the housing policy proposals that may unintentionally raise prices in the near term.

If you're trying to make sense of the markets in a year that is clearly refusing to follow the script, you've come to the right place.

 

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