Mike Singleton of Invictus Research - The Things That Matter and the Things That Don’t

2024-07-30

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Today, Rusty and Robyn are joined by Mike Singleton, Senior Analyst and Principal at Invictus Research. Mike studied finance and theology at the University of Notre Dame, where he graduated summa cum laude. After graduating, Mike had the opportunity to work for several years with Broad Run Investment Management, where he spent most of his time conducting deep, fundamental diligence on the highest quality companies he could find. Since then, most of his time has been spent researching the economy at-large and its relationship with the liquid asset markets. He believes that there is a massive hole in the research market for timely, thoughtful and accessible macroeconomic research. That's why he got involved at Invictus. He also wants to thank the incredible team of people behind the scenes at Invictus, who make all of their research possible.

Key Takeaways

[03:07] - Mike’s professional background and what he does in his current role.
[05:27] - Invitus claims to provide “Hedge Fund quality research for everyone.” What does this mean and what does it look like in action?
[08:56] - Invictus describes themselves as “a business cycle analyst.” What does this mean for those who don’t know and why are they attracted to this approach?
[10:20] - What are the top 3 things that matter, and that don’t matter, for investors in the back half of 2024?
[15:18] - Why does Mike think that the really long cycle of Large Cap outperformance may be coming to an end?
[17:38] - What is Mike’s current inflation outlook?
[20:33] - Invictus believes that The CRB Index, which tracks commodities, is one of the most important charts in the world right now. What do they mean by that?
[23:15] - What are Mike’s thoughts on The Fed and how does he see them acting for the remainder of the year?
[26:11] - When does Mike think it makes sense for investors to turn bearish?
[28:52] - What’s Mike’s favorite investment idea for the remainder of 2024?

Quote

[24:06] - “Fed policy tends to matter a lot when The Fed is moving quickly. When it’s hiking rates really quickly, or when it’s cutting rates really quickly…It tends to matter when earnings growth, in absolute terms, is close to zero - when it’s not increasing quickly or decreasing quickly. Right now neither of those conditions are met…we expect [earnings growth] to be low double digits, [but] even if it’s 9%, that is going to swamp the effect of 25 basis points of interest rate cuts here or there.” ~ Mike Singleton

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