Jim Paulsen Sees a Growth Scare Coming | The 34 Charts That Make Him Cautious

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.

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Topics Covered

• Why weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve

• Labor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spending

• Housing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weakness

• How the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fears

• Why Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yields

• How higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lag

• Why today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990s

• How AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linked

• Why the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflation

• The widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocation

Timestamps

00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears
04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs
09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data
13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent
17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes
22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag
26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage
30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like
34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending
39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced
44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing
48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning
52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com
57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and tech

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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.