S8, Ep 2: January Fishing Forecast: Weather Patterns and Musky Tips with Matt Reilly

2026-01-08

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Episode OverviewThe Articulate Fly kicks off 2026 with the first Southwest Virginia Fishing Report featuring guide Matt Reilly, who breaks down winter musky strategies for navigating January's unpredictable conditions in Southwest Virginia's river systems. Matt explains how musky concentrate in specific locations during cold water periods (upper 30s to low 40s) and why cloudy, warm days create ideal winter fishing opportunities. The conversation covers tactical approaches for fishing through temperature swings,...

Episode Overview

The Articulate Fly kicks off 2026 with the first Southwest Virginia Fishing Report featuring guide Matt Reilly, who breaks down winter musky strategies for navigating January's unpredictable conditions in Southwest Virginia's river systems. Matt explains how musky concentrate in specific locations during cold water periods (upper 30s to low 40s) and why cloudy, warm days create ideal winter fishing opportunities. The conversation covers tactical approaches for fishing through temperature swings, managing variable weather fronts and the concentrated fish behavior that makes winter musky fishing productive when anglers fish intentionally. Matt also discusses his 2026 booking calendar, upcoming smallmouth pre-spawn season and his appearance at the Buckeye United Fly Fishers show in Cincinnati. This report delivers practical insight for serious predator anglers targeting musky during the challenging but rewarding winter season, with additional perspective on spring striper opportunities and the year ahead without periodical cicada hatches.

Key Takeaways

How to locate winter musky by understanding that colder water temperatures concentrate fish into specific, predictable locations rather than spreading them throughout a system.
Why cloudy, warm days with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s create optimal winter musky conditions despite variable January weather patterns.
When to adjust your approach for cold water musky fishing by being more intentional about location selection rather than avoiding winter conditions altogether.

Techniques & Gear Covered

Matt Reilly emphasizes the importance of intentional, location-focused fishing during winter musky conditions. The discussion centers on tactical approaches for cold water periods when fish are concentrated rather than dispersed, requiring anglers to be strategic about where they invest their time and energy. Matt explains how water temperature fluctuations between the low 30s and low 40s influence fish behavior and how managing frontal systems and variable weather conditions factors into successful winter musky pursuits. The report also touches on Matt's smallmouth fly patterns and his approach to pre-spawn smallmouth tactics as the calendar moves toward late winter and early spring transitions.

Locations & Species

This Southwest Virginia Fishing Report focuses on Matt Reilly's home waters in Southwest Virginia, primarily targeting musky during the winter season. The discussion covers river systems experiencing variable January conditions, with water temperatures ranging from the low 30s (with ice) to the low 40s during warming trends. Matt also discusses upcoming opportunities for pre-spawn smallmouth bass in late winter and early spring and striper fishing scheduled for April and May. The region's fisheries demonstrate the characteristic boom-and-bust weather patterns of mid-Atlantic winters, where 70-degree days can give way to frozen conditions within a week, making day-by-day assessment critical for successful winter fishing.

FAQ / Key Questions AnsweredHow do cold water temperatures affect winter musky location and behavior?

Matt explains that cold water and ice don't necessarily shut down musky fishing but rather concentrate fish into very specific locations. The colder conditions are, the more packed fish tend to be in predictable spots. When water temperatures start warming up during comfortable weather windows, these concentrated fish can become quite active while remaining in those same predictable locations, making winter fishing productive for anglers who understand where to focus their efforts.

What are the ideal weather conditions for winter musky fishing in Southwest Virginia?

The sweet spot for winter musky is cloudy, warm weather combined with water temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Matt describes these conditions as "just money" for musky fishing. While January and early February are wild cards due to variable weather patterns that can swing from 70-degree days to frozen rivers within a week, understanding these temperature and weather combinations helps anglers capitalize on the best winter windows.

Why does intentional fishing matter more during cold water periods?

During cold conditions, musky are packed into specific places rather than spread throughout the river system. This concentration requires anglers to be more deliberate about their location choices and approach rather than covering water randomly. Managing time and energy efficiently becomes easier when you know exactly where fish are going to be, and this predictability is part of what makes winter fishing effective despite the challenging conditions.