TWIFO 478: Crude Embargoes and Winter Wheat

Is the energy market ready for a supply shock? On the final TWIFO of 2025, Mark Longo breaks down the surge in Energy CVOL as the U.S. intensifies pressure on Venezuela. With a crude oil embargo ratcheting up, we examine how WTI Crude is reacting and what the "Smart Money" is pricing into the February options skew.

We also shift our focus to the Ag complex, specifically Chicago Wheat (SRW), where we're seeing a surprising "Precious Metals-style" skew. From zero-cost collars in March Wheat to the massive 15% explosion in Palladium, we break down the movers and shakers at CME Group to close out the year.

Movers and Shakers: The CME Group Heatmap

• The Dark Side: Natural Gas leads the decline (off 7.04%), followed by BTC Crypto (off 6%) and S&P Tech (off 4.5%).

• The Light Side: Palladium is the standout winner (up 15.1%), with Platinum (up 5.6%) and Silver (up 2.2%) following the shiny metal trend.

Product Breakdown: Energy & Ag

• WTI Crude Oil: Analyzing the shift to a 5% put bid in February. Is the market fading the Venezuela rally?

• Chicago Wheat: Breaking down the 550 call vs. 500 put volume. Why are traders loading up on March upside?

• CVOL Update: Energy Volatility roars to the high of the week (63.68) while Treasury Yield Volatility hits multi-month lows.