Russia-Ukraine War Ground Truth (ft. Analyst Michael Kofman) | Swedish Spies, Iran Pause, AI Fears

Is the Russian military actually losing ground, or adapting faster than Western allies realize? Fresh off a tour of the Ukrainian front lines, Senior Fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Michael Kofman delivers a realistic assessment of the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war. Kofman explains why Ukraine is in its strongest position since mid-2023, how Russian military commanders reporting false progress to Putin may lead to a mismatch between goals and means in the war, the strategic implications behind Ukraine’s recent command changes and political shifts in defense procurement, and why it’s critical that NATO learns what it can from Ukrainian force exercises to be prepared to face Russia’s next post-war threat.

Sir Richard Dearlove and co-host Kate McCann unpack the latest and most significant news stories in geopolitics: the launch of Sweden’s own civilian intelligence service, whether President Trump’s rhetoric on Iran reflects uncertainty or strategic deception, and the data supporting the skeptical American attitude about AI.

In this episode:

(02:13) Sweden to Launch Its Own MI6

(06:01) Trump Hyperbole and Iran

(09:18) America’s AI Skepticism

(12:26) Interview with Michael Kofman

(13:10) State of the Ukrainian-Russian Frontlines

(15:30) Russian Military Goals vs. Means

(19:43) Russia’s False Picture of Success

(23:17) Evolution of Warfare on the Frontlines

(28:58) Assessment of International Response

(33:18) Patriot Missile Licensed Production Timeline

(37:02) Changes in Ukrainian Defense Leadership

(43:28) Corruption, Procurement, and Funding in Ukraine(

48:58) Russia’s Threat Post-War(54:50) Ukrainian Morale on the Frontlines\(57:18) Defining the Front Line of Fighting

(01:00:21) One Decision to Watch

(01:02:47) Takeaways, Audience Comments, and Wrap Up

Show Notes:

• The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine | Foreign Affairs: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-russia-threat-michael-kofman

Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio).

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