Tech tumbles, Aussie jobs surprise, oil jumps | Market movements

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 28 JULY 2026
Jacki Neumann, Head of Capital Markets at Sharesies

Note: Filmed Tuesday 28 July

↑ WHAT’S UP — Renewed Middle East conflict drove Brent crude oil up nearly 14% for the week and back above US$100 a barrel, lifting ASX energy names like Santos and Woodside. The NZX 50 gained around 0.6% even while overseas markets fell.

↓ WHAT’S DOWN — Alphabet fell 7% despite solid results and Tesla around 14%, dragging the Nasdaq down 2.1% and the S&P 500 down 0.6%. The weakness rippled into the ASX tech sector, down 6.6%, and the ASX 200 falling 0.3% for a third straight week.

! BIGGEST SURPRISES — Australian jobs jumped by 76,000 in June, well above expectations, and unemployment was steady at 4.4%, keeping an August RBA rate rise on the table. A spike in US Treasury yields lifted the odds of a Fed hike this week from around one-in-ten to nearly one-in-three.

◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The Fed hands down its rate decision on Wednesday US time, with a hold expected. Microsoft and Meta report the same day, with Amazon and Apple following on Thursday. In Australia, Wednesday's Q2 CPI print is a key input into the RBA's next rate decision.

◈ BIGGER PICTURE — The theme of earnings season is that strong revenue is no longer enough and investors want proof that AI capex is translating into returns. Until that spending clearly converts to profit, it seems the market will stay sceptical, even if the underlying numbers beat expectations.

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