Brian Burke’s 2026 Playbook: Small-Multi Deals & What’s Next for Rates

Chris Lopez and Paul Shannon welcome investor and author Brian Burke to look back at 2025 and set the table for 2026. Brian recaps his “end the dive in 25” thesis, explains why his pivot to senior housing has outperformed, and shares what actually surprised him this year. The group digs into supply, sentiment, and rates, plus the difference between perfect and imperfect markets and why small multifamily and true needs-based real estate may offer the best risk-adjusted plays right now.

Key Takeaways

2025 recap: senior housing led commercial performance while multifamily price declines slowed but did not fully reverse

Surprise of the year: new construction deliveries in multifamily stayed elevated longer than expected, keeping pressure on rents and occupancy

Portfolio moves: Brian co-invested in his senior housing fund, added selectively to individual stocks on pullbacks, explored biotech, and is eyeing Bitcoin on deeper dips

2026 watchlist: investor sentiment in multifamily, supply tapering, and the rate story split between short-term SOFR and the stubborn 10-year

Strategy notes: in a higher-for-longer world, appreciation must come from income growth more than cap rate compression

For LPs: prioritize needs-based real estate like senior housing, medical office, and data centers; consider contrarian but expert-led office plays and inefficient small-multifamily opportunities

Disclaimer

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.