Chuck’s Commentary - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building + Trump’s Candidates Keep Losing

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale

06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida

07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms

09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout

09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon

10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee

11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters

11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general

12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed

13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries

15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully

15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries

16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest

18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community

20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance

21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds

22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems

23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district

24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary

25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries

27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend

27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans

28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops

31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states

32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball

32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling

34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018

36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18

37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama

37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits

39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive

42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races

43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation

44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida

45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas

47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas

48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?

52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special

53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years

54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”

55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men

56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money

57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment

58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872

58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years

59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge

1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify

1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify

1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse

1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46

1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage

1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment

1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself

1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one

1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement

1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths

1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win

1:11:15 #1 AOC

1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg

1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris

1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom

1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment

1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems

1:23:00 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?

1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?

1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?

1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??

1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?

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