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Warm-Up
- CTP for SpaceX - Price almost hit $135 yesterday
- Earnings season 0 here we go!
- Inflation - choppy
- War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
Markets
- Inflation - Some Relief
- IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say?
- Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet
- Some interesting chart data
Health Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday....
Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up...
IBM: It's Been Murdered
IBM: I Bought Misery
IBM: Investment Board Malfunction
Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today
The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart
IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment.
IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT
- IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record.
- Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion.
- Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected.
- Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases.
- The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA.
- JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picks
TRUTH?
- President Trump says U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports; says Strait of Hormuz is open to all traffic except for Iran; says "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States"
- Can never be proven - no real numbers here.... Clearly needed to walk back the 20% item
- Hormuz still hobbled - best estimates are that the ships passing are 20% of pre-war levels
INFLATION RELIEF - FOR NOW
- June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus.
- Core CPI held at 2.6%.
- Falling gasoline and energy prices drove much of the improvement.
- Traders sharply reduced expectations for a July Fed rate increase.
- Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq advanced.
WALL STREET BANKS PRINT MONEY
- JPMorgan posted $21.2 billion in net income, helped by special items.
- Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, including an 86% jump in equities revenue.
- Bank of America earned $9.1 billion as equities trading revenue increased 70%.
- Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $20.98 per share and a 23.5% annualized return on common equity.
- Jamie Dimon described conditions as close to "as good as it gets."
THE $26.5 BILLION AI-MEMORY IPO - $ GRAB
- SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing.
- The offering priced at $149 and finished approximately 13% higher the day of the offering, but sunk the next.
- Demand reportedly exceeded the available shares by more than seven times.
- SK Hynix supplies high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia-powered AI systems.
- The listing gives U.S. investors direct access to one of the largest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
- - Samsung is on tap to do the same thing...
Some Interesting Charts
Best Quarters Plus One
Equal vs Cap-Weight
OIL'S CEASEFIRE WHIPLASH
- Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 a barrel after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down.
- WTI rose 4.4% to $73.52.
- Markets repriced the risk of interrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Energy stocks gained while airlines and the broader market weakened.
- Rising oil prices could quickly reverse the energy-related improvement seen in the June inflation report.
APPLE SUES OPENAI - AI PARTNERS TURN RIVALS
- Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging coordinated theft of hardware trade secrets.
- The defendants include OpenAI hardware chief Tang Tan and technical employee Chang Liu, both former Apple employees.
- Apple claims confidential product designs and manufacturing information were taken to accelerate OpenAI's consumer-device program.
- More than 400 former Apple employees reportedly now work at OpenAI, highlighting the scale of the talent migration between the companies.
IPO AND MEGADEAL FEVER RETURNS
- Global deals valued above $10 billion reached record levels during the first half of 2026.
- Mega-deals represented approximately 43% of newly announced M&A volume.
- Investment-banking revenue surged across JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
- Large offerings from SpaceX and SK Hynix added momentum to underwriting activity.
- The boom depends on high equity valuations, strong AI demand and large transactions continuing.
BANKS BANKS BANKS
JPMORGAN CHASE - RECORD PROFIT
- Profit reached a record $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, versus $5.59 expected.
- Managed revenue totaled $58 billion, with every major business reporting record revenue.
- Markets revenue rose 35%, led by an 86% surge in equities trading.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 30% to its highest level since 2021.
- Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices remain major risks.
BANK OF AMERICA - TRADING RECORD
- Net income rose 27% to $9.1 billion, or $1.21 per share, versus $1.13 expected.
- Revenue increased 15% to $31.6 billion.
- Sales and trading revenue jumped 33% to a record $7.1 billion; equities revenue rose 70%.
- Investment-banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion.
- Full-year net-interest-income growth is now expected near the upper end of the previous 6% to 8% range.
GOLDMAN SACHS - DEAL BOOM
- Profit reached $6.63 billion, or $20.98 per share, versus $14.48 expected.
- Revenue totaled $20.3 billion.
- Equities revenue surged 72% to a record $7.42 billion.
- Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue increased 32% to $4.59 billion.
- Investment-banking fees jumped 55%, helping send Goldman shares to a record high.
CITIGROUP - DECADE-HIGH REVENUE
- Net income jumped 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, versus roughly $2.74 expected.
- Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, the bank's highest quarterly revenue in a decade.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 44% to $1.55 billion.
- Equities trading revenue rose 45%, while fixed-income trading increased 7%.
- Return on tangible common equity reached 13%, matching the upper end of management's target range.
WELLS FARGO - BACK ON OFFENSE
- Net income rose 22% to $6.4 billion, or $2.00 per share.
- Revenue reached $22.6 billion and topped expectations.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 20%.
- Markets revenue rose 24% as volatility boosted client activity.
- Management said the removal of regulatory growth restrictions is allowing the bank to deploy capital and expand its balance sheet.
Bank Returns Post Earnings (July 14, 2026)
Bank Stocks
Earnings Cheat Sheet
- JULY 15 - ASML: Expected EPS around $7.92 on $10.25 billion revenue; bookings, EUV demand and updated AI-chip equipment guidance will matter most.
- JULY 15 - JOHNSON & JOHNSON: Expected EPS around $2.86 on $25.02 billion revenue; watch pharmaceutical growth, medical-device demand and full-year guidance.
- JULY 15 - MORGAN STANLEY: Expected EPS around $2.89 on $19.38 billion revenue; trading, investment banking and wealth-management inflows are the key numbers.
- JULY 15 - BLACKROCK: Expected EPS around $12.59 on $6.80 billion revenue; assets under management, ETF flows and private-market fundraising will be in focus.
- JULY 16 - TSMC: Expected EPS around $3.76-$3.77 on roughly $40 billion revenue; AI demand, gross margin and any increase to capital-spending guidance are critical.
- JULY 16 - UNITEDHEALTH: Expected EPS around $4.84 on $110.8 billion revenue; medical-cost trends and the durability of full-year guidance are the main issues.
- JULY 16 - GE AEROSPACE: Expected EPS around $1.85 on $11.8 billion revenue; engine deliveries, service revenue and supply-chain constraints will drive the reaction.
- JULY 16 - NETFLIX: Expected EPS around $0.79 on $12.58 billion revenue; advertising growth, engagement and operating-margin guidance will matter more than subscribers.
- JULY 17 - TRAVELERS: Expected EPS around $5.33 on roughly $11 billion revenue; catastrophe losses, insurance pricing and reserve development are the key swing factors.
- JULY 17 - FIFTH THIRD: Expected EPS around $0.98 on $3.25 billion revenue; net-interest income, deposit costs and credit quality will be closely watched.
WAYFAIR GOES PHYSICAL
- Wayfair opened its second large-format store in Atlanta on March 31, following the 2024 debut of its 150,000-square-foot Wilmette, Illinois flagship.
- The company is building a national store network, with Denver expected later in 2026 and Yonkers, Cincinnati and Princeton locations planned for 2027.
- The stores combine furniture, decor, appliances and home-improvement products, giving customers a chance to test large purchases before ordering.
- The strategy is a major reversal for an online-first retailer and is designed to increase brand awareness, reduce dependence on digital advertising and capture shoppers returning to physical stores.
AI SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND - PUBLIC OWNERSHIP DEBATE
- Bernie Sanders introduced legislation requiring the largest AI companies to transfer 50% of their equity into a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
- The fund is projected by supporters to hold roughly $7 trillion and could finance annual public dividends and government services.
- OpenAI has separately floated a much smaller proposal in which major AI companies would voluntarily contribute about 5% of their equity.
- Supporters call it a way to share AI-created wealth; critics warn government ownership could discourage investment, distort regulation and reduce innovation.
PSA - That's what we do....CYCLOSPORIASIS OUTBREAK - CASES SURGE
- Cyclosporiasis cases are rising across more than 30 states, with Michigan, Ohio and New York reporting particularly large increases.
- The CDC reported at least 843 confirmed cases and 86 hospitalizations by July 9, but state totals and reporting delays suggest the real count is substantially higher.
- Lettuce, salad greens and other fresh produce are being investigated, although officials have not identified a specific product, supplier or national recall.
- The parasite causes prolonged or recurring watery diarrhea; washing produce may reduce risk, and persistent symptoms should prompt medical testing and treatment.
HOW TO REDUCE CYCLOSPORIASIS RISK (FWIW)
- Wash hands with soap before preparing food and after using the bathroom.
- Rinse fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs thoroughly under running water; scrubbing helps but cannot guarantee removal.
- Keep raw produce separate from unwashed items, dirty utensils and preparation surfaces.
- When traveling in tropical or subtropical areas, use safe water and avoid raw produce you cannot peel yourself; routine chemical sanitizers may not kill Cyclospora.
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