Vina Technology at AI time - Công nghệ Việt Nam thời AI
News:Business News
China’s Rebalancing Imperative – Part 3
Stephen S. Roach, Project Syndicate. April 19, 2024.
China’s policy challenge
I have not come lightly to this more cautious perspective, and I have taken a fair amount of flak for it, especially from long-biased US politicians and their media consorts who, in years past, have been critical of my more upbeat views on Chinese growth. John Maynard Keynes is often credited (though incorrectly) with having the humility to say, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” There can be little doubt that the facts surrounding the Chinese economy have changed.
Until recently, my Chinese friends have been more open to debating whether China’s structural problems – especially its debt, demographic shifts, and mounting deflation risks – are now starting to resemble those that long afflicted Japan. Given that Japan’s failure to address the structural and institutional underpinnings of a serious TFP problem was a key factor contributing to its protracted malaise, and that those same concerns resonate in China today, it is appropriate to ask if the Chinese economy might be ensnared in a similar trap. Moreover, reversing the downward trend in TFP aligns with both my proposed rebalancing framework and Xi’s recent policy comments.
In the end, this is no academic exercise. Describing a problem without taking a stab at a solution is an exercise in futility. In that spirit, I close with an assessment of the current Chinese policy strategy as seen through the lens of China’s rebalancing imperative, and offer three tentative conclusions:
First, the Chinese government needs a more enlightened policy response to its profound growth challenges. Its reliance on what it has long called “proactive fiscal stimulus and prudent monetary policy,” while necessary, is insufficient and too similar to the toolkit that China successfully deployed in the aftermath of past financial crises.
Chinese policymakers once again seem to be resorting to the brute force of large cash infusions to address major dislocations in the property market, local-government financing vehicles, and the stock market. But they may not be enough to offset powerful structural headwinds and advance the goal of economic rebalancing, which suggests that the risks to this year’s official growth target of around 5% are tilted to the downside.
Second, short-term countercyclical tactics do not effectively address the deeply rooted structural issues that are preventing China’s rebalancing. The combination of external pressures and lagging household consumption leaves China with no choice but to boost productivity to hit its medium- and longer-term growth objectives. Xi’s recent focus on the “new productive forces” of a “new development model,” and the productivity-enhancing supply-side initiatives that Premier Li Qiang announced in this year’s Government Work Report are encouraging.
But productivity challenges are especially daunting for China, give its recent TFP downtrend. The country’s economic leaders must therefore deepen their model-based assessments of the analytical and empirical linkages between Chinese policy design and its TFP quagmire.
Lastly, the time has come for Chinese authorities to reform the social safety net as a means of jump-starting consumer-led rebalancing. Enhancing social services currently ranks far too low, at number ten, on the list of “major tasks for 2024” in Li’s report. The emphasis needs to shift from a fixation on quantity – boosting enrollment in nationwide health-care and retirement plans – to improving the quality of welfare programs by increasing the benefits offered by these schemes. Only then can the fear-driven excess savings of an aging population be replaced by an increased propensity to spend.
Unfortunately, China’s latest policy initiatives, such as a “worry-free consumption” initiative and a consumer goods trade-in program, are vague and focused on the short term.
Episode 1790 - May 6 - Phần 1 - Trí tuệ nhân tạo trong giáo dục đại học - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1789 - May 6 - Tiếng Anh - Phần 2 - Cuộc bầu cử chuyên chế của Ấn Độ - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1788 - May 6 - Phần 2 - Cuộc bầu cử chuyên chế của Ấn Độ - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1787 - May 6 - Tiếng Anh - Phần 1 - Cuộc bầu cử chuyên chế của Ấn Độ - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1786 - May 6 - Phần 1 - Cuộc bầu cử chuyên chế của Ấn Độ - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1785 - May 5 - Phần 2 - Triển vọng ngành công nghệ năm 2024 - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1784 - May 5 - Phần 1 - Triển vọng ngành công nghệ năm 2024 - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1783 - May 5 - Tiếng Anh - Tại mỏ dầu lớn nhất nước Mỹ, mặt đất đang phồng lên và oằn mình - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1782 - May 5 - Tại mỏ dầu lớn nhất nước Mỹ, mặt đất đang phồng lên và oằn mình - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1781 - May 5 - Dân số do AI tạo ra đang ở đây và họ đã sẵn sàng làm việc - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1780 - May 4 - Phần 3 - Chương 1 - Tạo ra sản phẩm tốt hơn với AI – Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1779 - May 4 - Phần 2 - Chương 1 - Tạo ra sản phẩm tốt hơn với AI – Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1778 - May 4 - Phần 1 - Chương 1 - Tạo ra sản phẩm tốt hơn với AI – Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1777 - May 4 - Tiếng Anh - Phần 2 - Gặp gỡ người phụ nữ đã cho Tổng thống Biden xem ChatGPT - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1776 - May 4 - Tiếng Anh - Phần 1 - Gặp gỡ người phụ nữ đã cho Tổng thống Biden xem ChatGPT - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1775 - May 3 - Phần 2 - Gặp gỡ người phụ nữ đã cho Tổng thống Biden xem ChatGPT - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1774 - May 3 - Phần 1 - Gặp gỡ người phụ nữ đã cho Tổng thống Biden xem ChatGPT - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1773 - May 3 - GitHub Copilot Workspace
Episode 1772 - May 3 - Copilot Workspace, một môi trường phát triển AI để biến ý tưởng thành phần mềm - Vina Technology at AI time
Episode 1771 - May 3 - Công dân Trung Quốc đang đối phó với giám sát kỹ thuật số như thế nào - Vina Technology at AI time
Create your
podcast in
minutes
It is Free
Pharmacy Podcast Network
Startitup podcasty
Sarah Westall - Business Game Changers
Børsen Morgenbriefing
Wall Street Breakfast