Capes Climb and Arb opportunity on Iron Ore Spreads

This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads.

I’m Jess, and alongside Davide, I’ll be steering you through what’s been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets.

This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark.

We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal.

To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what’s shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it’s been a sideways stretch for paper spreads.

If you listen in, you’ll get a clear overview of how China’s latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows.

Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that’s hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates.

From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what’s behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action.

Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil’s recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC’s output strategies and why Singapore’s high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There’s especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts.

By the time you’ve finished listening, you’ll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You’ll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you’ll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances.

Whether you’re looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what’s shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.