So the election result in the Hamilton West by-election is proof that this election year is going to be a thrilling ride.
The electorate was always a soft blue one which swung hard red after the government's handling of Covid. But now it has swung back to the sort of political leaning it had before the pandemic. In fact it may have gone hard blue.
But it needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as only 31 per cent of the electorate voted. The election was also missing a Green candidate, Gourav Sharma also took 1200 votes with him, which was a surprisingly good result in my book.
Crucially National Leader Christopher Luxon also saw that it wasn't as one sided as some made out and warned the party against arrogance and lethargy.
It must be tempting as a National party supporter to hear the constant criticism of this Government and then see the turning of the tide in polls being confirmed by this by election result and think you're home and hosed.
And this Government is constantly criticised. "The most incompetent Government ever. A Government obsessed with control. A Government beholden to Maori interests. A Government with no business experience"
But this is still a Government that won the biggest mandate in MMP history just 3 years ago. It is a Government with 5 years on the Treasury benches.
And National has a lot of new talent on its books after the evisceration of the last election. Even its leader is only one term in.
The Prime Minister's statement that the economy will be Labour's main focus this coming year is also a sign that they're beginning to see the writing on the wall.
If they're smart they'll start jettisoning the policies that are starting to alienate voters. The RNZ/TVNZ merger. The hate speech legislation is disappearing.
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Andrew Dickens: Luxon shoots himself in the foot, time and time again
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