Inflation Risk is the Wrong Recession Lesson

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery.

Chapters:

00:01:14 Announcements

00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised 

00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression"

00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation?

00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban

00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE

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