Trader Ferg: What Everyone Gets Wrong About The Iran War | Asymmetric Upside

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. Trader Ferg shares his current market views, highlighting several contrarian opportunities built around long-term, underappreciated assets. He remains bullish on scarce resources like thermal coal, where tight supply and Asian demand support high-quality names, though pure-play options are limited.

In energy, he sees an asymmetric upside and prefers long-dated options on integrated trading houses like Shell, leveraging torque to Brent and LNG while benefiting from volatility through their opaque but highly profitable trading arms. He also points to offshore engineering and oil services as an underinvested niche with rock-bottom valuations, already showing outperformance and strong earnings visibility. A key theme is the shift toward resilient, capital-light business models.

Trader Ferg is particularly enthusiastic about emerging market exchange operators, which he views as inflation-protected, high-margin plays that have been out of favor due to a strong US dollar but are poised for a decade of growth as global capital flows rotate. In gold, he sees a structural bull market driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, though near-term consolidation is likely after flushing out speculative tourists.

He advocates a patient, long-horizon approach, cautioning against short-term futures and binary geopolitical bets, which have historically been unprofitable for him. Instead, he emphasizes buying cheap, hated assets with robust free cash flow and letting time and volatility work in his favor. Throughout the discussion, he stresses the importance of stress-testing assumptions, learning from mistakes, and focusing on durable trends rather than short-term noise, insights he regularly shares through his Substack.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:52 – Current Market Opportunities
00:02:44 – Exchange Operators Theme
00:04:27 – Oil Services and Offshore
00:08:24 – Oil Market Supply Dynamics
00:17:19 – China Flexibility in Energy
00:25:45 – Hormuz & Concerning Timlines
00:27:07 – Fertilizers Agriculture and Sulfur
00:29:08 – Sulphur Supply Thoughts
00:32:37 – Thermal Coal Supply Demand
00:44:00 – Gold Market and Producers
00:45:55 – Long Term Inflation Strategies
00:50:33 – Exchange Operations
00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/trader_ferg

Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.