Nifty Outlook 2026: Why Arbitrageurs are Betting on High Volatility This Year

Are you tired of watching your Fixed Deposit returns get eaten away by high taxes and inflation? In this deep-dive episode of Paisa Vaisa, Anupam Gupta sits down with Sailesh Jain, Fund Manager at Tata Asset Management, to unlock the mechanics of Arbitrage Funds. Many investors overlook this category, yet it remains one of the most efficient ways to park your spare cash while enjoying the tax benefits of equity. Sailesh Jain explains the concept of "riskless profit" through a simple mango market analogy, showing how buying in the cash market and simultaneously selling in the futures market locks in a predictable spread. Unlike traditional equity funds, arbitrage funds thrive on market volatility. When the market swings, the price mismatches between cash and futures expand, allowing seasoned fund managers like Sailesh Jain to "harvest" higher returns for their investors.

We explore why these funds have become a staple for HNIs and retail investors alike, especially with the 2026 tax regulations offering a significant edge through 12.5% Long-Term Capital Gains (LTCG). Sailesh Jain provides a rare look into the "special situations" that drive Tata’s consistent outperformance, including dividend arbitrage and corporate actions. Whether you are managing corporate treasury or just looking for a better alternative to your savings account, this episode provides a clear roadmap. We also look ahead to the 2026 Budget and the broader Indian economic outlook, with Sailesh Jain projecting why India remains a superior market for both debt and equity investors despite global geopolitical tensions. By the end of this conversation, you will understand how to build a "linear" and steady portfolio that lets you sleep peacefully even during market turbulence.

Key Take away

• Understanding Arbitrage Mechanics: Sailesh Jain explains how to generate profit by exploiting price gaps between cash and future markets.

• Volatility as a Tool: Discover why market swings during major events actually increase the earning potential of arbitrage strategies.

• Taxation Advantage in 2026: A breakdown of how the 12.5% LTCG rate makes arbitrage funds more profitable than FDs on a post-tax basis.

• Risk Management and Safety: Insights into how Tata AMC protects capital during extreme market crises like COVID and GFC.

• Economic Outlook for 2026: Sailesh Jain shares his projections for 15% earnings growth and India's position in the global economy.
  
  
  
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