Apocalypse Now Redux

Episode #402: “In stable times, sustainability may be seen as a long term aspiration,” says Tin Shine Aung, a Burmese scholar and sustainability expert whose work bridges research, policy, and on-the-ground crisis response. “But in our context, in the context of a polycrisis, it’s become like a strategy for survival and reconstruction.”

Arguing that Myanmar is living through a true polycrisis— multiple shocks that collide and amplify each other rather than simply add up— Tin Shine Aung points out that this demands treating sustainability not as a later luxury but as a present survival and reconstruction strategy. He rejects the idea of “waiting until after the war,” noting that disasters and social-economic collapses do not pause for politics, so governance must integrate sustainability now across environmental, social, and economic pillars.

Tin Shine Aung threads a timeline to show how system fragility accumulated: the 2007 fuel-price crisis and Saffron Revolution exposed cracks; in 2008, Cyclone Nargis devastated the delta and the junta nonetheless pushed a constitutional referendum, claiming “over 90%” approval while many communities were still reeling. The 2010s brought ethnoreligious nationalism and political accommodation to it: Muslim candidates were excluded from the NLD’s 2015 lists, producing the first Muslim-free legislature since independence, and in January 2017 constitutional lawyer U Ko Ni— closely associated with State Counsellor design— was assassinated at Yangon’s airport broad daylight.

Here Tin Shine Aung contrasts Myanmar’s breakdown with Ukraine to illustrate what makes a polycrisis: in Myanmar, systems across governance, economy, and social services have simultaneously failed and safe exit pathways are scarce. Economically, factories in major cities often get only “two to three hours a day” of grid power, forcing costly generators; more than a million workers have lost jobs; basics like cooking oil have tripled versus pre-coup; sanctions intended for elites cascade down the economy; new U.S. tariffs of about 40% on some categories and military conscription further squeeze the garment sector and labor supply.

And yet, despite state failure and natural disasters, even now, grassroots actors are improvising underground schooling, digital classrooms and alternative universities, and turning to small-scale renewables— evidence that sustainability thinking is already alive on the ground! Tin Shine Aung urges international partners to scale such local initiatives and design sanctions, tariffs, and aid logistics to avoid worsening multiplier effects. “Even in the polycrisis,” he says, “our Burmese people are quietly laying the foundation for the sustainable future.”