2025 Wrap Up... Year End Surprises

2026-01-07

Download

There are a lot of year end surprises in store with the 2025 wrap up. The year has come to an end and we are here to discuss everything from year-end reflections and personal anecdotes to a broad market outlook. We focused on the recent surge and volatility in precious metals, especially silver, explaining how futures-market leverage and exchange rule changes (like margin requirement hikes) are used to cool speculative excess, why parabolic price moves are unhealthy, and why investors should be cautious in the near term even if long-term fundamentals remain bullish. We also talked government fraud, rising debt costs, aging demographics, deglobalization, and higher-for-longer rates, arguing that bad asset allocation now carries real risk and diversification with assets like precious metals still matter.

We discuss...

We challenge simplistic economic cause-and-effect narratives, arguing that inflation, tariffs, and monetary policy outcomes are highly contextual and often misrepresented by official government data.
Past periods of QE and low inflation were cited to illustrate how money printing can offset deflation rather than automatically cause inflation, reinforcing skepticism toward consensus forecasts.
Large-scale government fraud is pervasive, rarely punished, and structurally embedded, with the prediction that no high-level figures will face consequences in ongoing public scandals.
Precious metals, particularly silver, were a major focus due to extreme recent price volatility, including sharp multi-day gains and losses while most investors were disengaged over the holidays.
The mechanics of futures markets were explained in detail, emphasizing how leverage works, why margin requirements matter, and how exchanges can legally change rules to stabilize markets.
Recent increases in margin requirements for silver, gold, platinum, and palladium were highlighted as a deliberate attempt by exchanges to flush out speculative leverage and cool "animal spirits."
Governments and exchanges can escalate interventions dramatically if needed, including forcing cash settlement or changing delivery rules, which would materially alter market dynamics.
Banks' growing discomfort with holding U.S. Treasuries and their shift toward gold are a quiet but significant signal about long-term confidence in fiat systems.
The contrast between gold (central-bank owned) and silver (primarily investor and industrial owned) explains differing market behaviors and intervention risks.
The hosts argued that the era of "cheap mistakes" is over, meaning poor allocation decisions now result in permanent capital loss, not just missed opportunity.
AI enthusiasm should be thought of skeptically as large language models are becoming commoditized quickly, lack durable moats, and resemble past tech bubbles.
Be cautious, diversify, be skeptical of narratives, have respect for market structure, and prepare for a year where volatility exposes complacency.