The math of buying in has changed. The math of staying in has too. David Widmar of Agricultural Economic Insights and Eric Olsen of MNP Farm Management bring the US and Canadian numbers together to examine what farmland affordability, cash rent pressure, and the post-ZIRP interest rate environment actually mean for producers running a farm in 2026. Two countries. One calculator. The gap between what land is worth and what it can earn has never been wider.
Topics and Timestamps
0:00 -- Dan opens: the...
The math of buying in has changed. The math of staying in has too. David Widmar of Agricultural Economic Insights and Eric Olsen of MNP Farm Management bring the US and Canadian numbers together to examine what farmland affordability, cash rent pressure, and the post-ZIRP interest rate environment actually mean for producers running a farm in 2026. Two countries. One calculator. The gap between what land is worth and what it can earn has never been wider.
Topics and Timestamps
0:00 -- Dan opens: the 16-year cash rent stat and what it signals about the moment we are in
0:07 -- David Widmar: how ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) inflated asset values from 2008 onward
0:08 -- New Fed chair Kevin Warsh: five review areas, inflation as priority one, what it means for rates
0:09 -- Eric Olsen: Canadian interest rate outlook -- stable to slightly up, no major jumps expected
0:11 -- David: US row crop squeeze -- lower commodity prices, stubborn cost structure, Iran conflict pushing energy and fertilizer back up
0:12 -- US government ad hoc payments: second highest since the 1920s, and why that carries risk
0:14 -- Eric: Canadian farm support programs -- AgriStability, crop insurance (98% participation in Manitoba), GARS
0:17 -- David: How ARC and PLC work -- risk management programs with a built-in payment delay problem
0:19 -- David: "Musical chairs" -- why ad hoc programs create systemic risk rather than resolve it
0:20 -- Eric: AgriStability explained -- margin-based, plannable, based on your numbers not a county average
0:23 -- Eric: "Farmers are sophisticated businesspeople" -- the $2-3M floor that surprises people outside agriculture
0:24 -- David: The paradox of risk management -- tools that reduce short-term pain can build long-term fragility
0:30 -- Dan introduces the farmland affordability calculator David built for registrants
0:31 -- Metric 1: Down payment years -- Indiana at $15K/acre, $326 rent, 35% down = 16 years of cash rent saved (was 6 in the 1990s)
0:34 -- Eric: Canadian read on Metric 1 -- $8,500/acre in the Regina plains, $180/acre rent, nearly identical ratio
0:36 -- US vs Canada land ownership structure: 60%+ rented in Illinois regions, 70% owned in western Canada
0:38 -- Harry Siemens (audience): How does the farm community make sense of high land values and next-generation transition?
0:39 -- David: Path to equilibrium -- lower land values, lower interest rates, slower appreciation, or some combination of all three
0:41 -- Eric: The case for separating the real estate business from the farm operating business; barriers to entry for young producers
0:44 -- Harry Siemens: Are large corporate landowners (200,000+ acres) healthy for the industry?
0:45 -- Eric: Supply and demand reality -- large land releases will affect prices; the market is starting to work
0:47 -- David: How lenders managed large land holdings in the 1980s crisis and what that signals for today
0:49 -- David Schmidt (Rabobank, Alberta): Are lenders shifting from asset-based to cashflow-based lending decisions?
0:49 -- Eric: Yes -- lenders taking a harder look at business fundamentals; younger producers will feel it first
0:51 -- Metric 2: First-year payment calculator -- US approaching 300% (3 acres to cover payment on 1), Canada at 195-250% depending on rate
0:56 -- Alex Clark (Rabobank): Not tightening so much as asking better questions -- creative lending options, extended amortization
0:57 -- David: Closing takeaway -- about half of US farmland appreciation since the 1980s came from falling interest rates; don't assume you are immune to rate risk if you own land outright
0:59 -- Eric: Thanks, upcoming MNP benchmarking series; Dan previews Robert Andjelic's return next week (bullish on commodities super cycle)
1:01 -- Dan closes: Building Your Operating System cohort update, August cohort opening
Resources Mentioned
Agricultural Economic Insights farmland affordability calculator (shared with registrants via event link)
ARC and PLC farm bill programs (US) -- risk management programs for row crop producers
AgriStability -- Canada's margin-based whole-farm income support program
GARS -- private margin-based insurance product for Canadian producers
Connect with David Widmar
Agricultural Economic Insights: https://aei.ag/overview
Connect with Eric Olsen
MNP Farm Management: mnp.ca
Connect with Growing the Future
Website: growingthefuture.ca
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