133 - Wargaming: A Turkish Invasion of Northern Cyprus

Cyprus sits at a persistent impasse, divided between the Republic of Cyprus in the south and the Turkish-backed administration in the north. Despite decades of negotiations, reunification remains elusive, and the island has quietly become one of the most militarised borders in Europe, patrolled by UN peacekeepers, flanked by British bases, and overshadowed by tens of thousands of Turkish troops. While Ankara now frames Cyprus as a lower strategic priority, its military presence on the island remains substantial, and recent tensions over gas exploration and border infrastructure suggest the status quo may be more fragile than it appears. So why does Turkey still maintain such a significant footprint in Northern Cyprus? How stable is the current arrangement? And what would happen if a local incident triggered a wider escalation? To unpack these questions and assess the island’s geopolitical future, we turn to our panel of experts.

On the panel this week:

- James Ker-Lindsay (Kent University)

- Rich Outzen (The Atlantic Council)

- Matthew Bryza (Straife)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 03:27

PART II - 26:10

PART III - 46:03

Outro - 57:25

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