Black Friday Cyber Monday Recap & The Forecasting Process Behind Ecom Profit - with Richie Mashiko

2025-12-09

Download

This week, we’re joined by Richie Mashiko - Head of Beacon at Iris Finance for a full breakdown of how BFCM played out across their businesses. Together, the group recaps what actually drove performance this year, from media-mix diversification and top-of-funnel investment to traffic dynamics, conversion-rate behavior, and how different brand sizes approached Cyber Five strategy.From there, Richie walks through his forecasting philosophy - including how he builds bottoms-up financial models, how diminishing returns shape CAC and f...

From there, Richie walks through his forecasting philosophy - including how he builds bottoms-up financial models, how diminishing returns shape CAC and forecasting assumptions, and how finance and marketing need to stay aligned around realistic growth expectations. The group also dives into contribution margin, AMER, customer mix, and why so many brands forecast incorrectly when marketing isn’t part of the planning process.

They then unpack the levers that actually make an ecommerce business profitable: cohort behavior, scaling past category saturation, interpreting flat conversion rates alongside surging traffic, and what contribution dollars really tell you. Richie shares lessons learned from She’s Birdie’s rebuild year and how smaller brands can apply the same financial discipline as companies operating at nine-figure scale.

If you're trying to understand your BFCM results, build a forecast that reflects reality, or get finance and marketing speaking the same language, this episode is a must-listen.

If you have a question for the MOperators Hotline, click the link to be in with a chance of it being discussed on the show: https://forms.gle/1W7nKoNK5Zakm1Xv6

Chapters:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:06:40 - BFCM recap

00:24:47 - Media Mix Strategy

00:41:52 - International Markets

00:53:44 - FP&A Background

01:07:05 - Building a Forecast

Motion.⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/pricing?utm_source=marketing-operators-podcast&utm_medium=paidsponsor&utm_campaign=march-2024-ad-reads⁠⁠⁠https://motionapp.com/creative-trends

Prescient AI.⁠⁠⁠https://www.prescientai.com/operators

Richpanel.⁠⁠⁠https://www.richpanel.com/?utm_source=MO&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=ytdesc

Aftersell.https://www.aftersell.com/operators

Haus.http://Haus.io/operators

Subscribe to the 9 Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@Operators9

Subscribe to the Finance Operators Podcast here: https://www.youtube.com/@FinanceOperatorsFOPS

Comments (3)