Russia Recognizes the Taliban | Markets Calm, VIX on the Edge | SBI’s 787-District Ambition

Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint.. I’m Nelson John and here are today’s top stories.

 “30 Seconds to Doomsday”: Pakistan’s Nuclear Scare

In a startling disclosure, Rana Sanaullah, aide to Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif, revealed that during Operation Sindoor, Pakistan had just 30–45 seconds to assess whether an incoming Indian BrahMos missile was nuclear-armed. The missile had struck Pakistan’s Nur Khan airbase following a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians. India’s swift tri-service retaliation targeted JeM and LeT camps in Pakistan and PoK.

The near-crisis, which ended with Pakistan requesting a ceasefire, underscores how close the region came to nuclear conflict. Sanaullah also questioned former U.S. President Donald Trump’s role in the standoff, hinting at vague international mediation. The episode highlights the razor-thin margins on which Indo-Pak ties rest.

2. Markets Calm, But Tariff Tempest Ahead?

With the Nifty 50 up 4% this month and India’s VIX sliding to 12.44, investor nerves seem soothed—for now. But volatility could return swiftly as Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ends on July 9.

Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities warns the VIX could spike to 19–20 if tariffs return. Globally, too, fear gauges have cooled—the Cboe VIX has dropped from 51 to under 17. While over 50 IPOs, including HDB Financial’s ₹12,500 crore listing, are riding this wave of calm, events like TCS’s July 10 earnings and the FOMC meet on July 29-30 could shake things up again.

Russia has become the first country to officially recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, ending nearly four years of diplomatic isolation for the group. In Kabul, Russian Ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov handed over formal recognition papers to Taliban foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, who called it a “courageous step.”

3. Russia Recognizes Taliban Government

Russia’s move follows its decision in April to remove the Taliban from its terror list, and it now views the group as an ally against ISIS-K. Economic motives also drive this pivot—Russia sees Afghanistan as a transit hub for energy routes into Southeast Asia.

Western nations remain cautious. The U.S. condemned the move as dangerous legitimization, and others like Germany, France, and Britain continue to demand progress on women’s rights before engaging further. The Taliban, now backed by Russia, is eyeing a UN seat—but that path remains fraught.

4. Tata’s Grocery Ambitions Get Serious

Noel Tata believes Star—Trent Ltd’s grocery venture—could soon outshine fashion brands Zudio and Westside. Why? “The food market is just so much bigger than clothing,” he said at Trent’s AGM.

Led by Neville Tata, Star posted a record revenue of ₹8,854 crore in FY25, growing 25% YoY, now contributing over 15% of Trent’s revenue. Despite past losses of ₹1,000 crore, the group is investing ₹2,000 crore this year alone—nearly 3x the total invested in the past two decades.

The secret sauce? Private labels—72% of Q4 sales came from in-house brands. But challenges remain, including competition from Blinkit, Zepto, and Instamart. For now, the Tatas are betting big on your grocery basket.

5. SBI’s Mission: Lead Every District

As it celebrates 70 years, State Bank of India has a bold new target—become the market leader in all 787 Indian districts. Currently, it holds 22.5% in deposits and 19.3% in advances.

Chairman C.S. Setty outlined a three-pronged strategy: defend dominance in strong markets, expand aggressively in metros, and close “white spaces” where SBI has no presence. Specialized branches will be rolled out in areas with deposit strength but low loan penetration.

SBI is also pursuing strategic tie-ups with fintech, agrotech, and digital platforms while rolling out a massive 104-zone outreach to align its workforce. The message is clear: from a 1955 legacy to a digital-first future, SBI wants to own the next decade of Indian banking.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices