Trend Following Warfare: John Boyd’s OODA Loop in Trading

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Most investors want comfort. We make the case for discomfort. This conversation dives into trend following as a rule-based way to survive chaotic markets, mapped directly to John Boyd’s OODA Loop and the culture that made the Turtle Traders relentless. Instead of worshiping smooth curves and tidy narratives, we focus on process: cut losses fast, let winners run, and treat volatility as information rather than injury.

With Jerry Parker and Mike Melissinos, we unpack what makes trend following so hard and so effective. Jerry traces the original Turtle training, where doing the right thing while losing in the short term was rewarded—a culture almost no client environment tolerates. Mike explains why “volatility management” often disguises feelings management, and how redefining risk as the chance of permanent loss changes everything from position sizing to patience. Together, we explore orientation—how beliefs shape what you see—and why a 40 percent win rate can still compound if your payoff distribution catches outliers.

Jerry Parker on X: @rjpjr12
Jerry Parker on Linkedin

Mike Melissinos on LinkedIn:
Melissinos Trading
Michael Melissinos's Blog: 
Michael Melissinos on X: @mmelissinos

John R. Boyd's Conceptual Spiral was originally titled No Way Out. In his own words: 

“There is no way out unless we can eliminate the features just cited. Since we don’t know how to do this, we must continue the whirl of reorientation…”

March 25, 2025

Flow Learning Lab

Find us on X. @NoWayOutcast
Substack: The Whirl of ReOrientation

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