The sicko who invented prediction markets

2026-07-22

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Where did prediction markets come from, and why are they more popular than ever? Charlie Warzel joins the pod once again to discuss the proliferation of these strange companies like Kalshi and Polymarket that allow you to bet on nearly anything — monetizing the good, and mostly bad things. We go into the early 2000s background of these platforms, led by Robin Hanson, an economist and self-described “Jungian ENTP” who originally got involved with prediction markets through his “Policy Analysis Market”...

Where did prediction markets come from, and why are they more popular than ever?

Charlie Warzel joins the pod once again to discuss the proliferation of these strange companies like Kalshi and Polymarket that allow you to bet on nearly anything — monetizing the good, and mostly bad things.

We go into the early 2000s background of these platforms, led by Robin Hanson, an economist and self-described “Jungian ENTP” who originally got involved with prediction markets through his “Policy Analysis Market” as a means to anticipate political instability and terrorist attacks; how they are used now; and whether we’re headed into Hanson’s desired “futarchy.”

Our guest Charlie Warzel writes the Galaxy Brain newsletter and podcast. Subscribe to the newsletter here and check out the podcast here or wherever you listen.

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