Polymarket and Kalshi: Financial Tools or Casinos?

2025-12-12

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Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have had a big year in 2025, but what are they really? Securities? Derivatives? Sportsbooks? They may be all of the above. Listen to my breakdown on how these markets have evolved over time, and what led to their current rise today. We then dive into the opportunities, risks, and the regulatory challenges that may shape their future. CHAPTERS 02:54 The Origin of Prediction Markets 06:43 Polymarket, Kalshi, and Modern Prediction Markets 09:16 Regulation and What’s Next 09:31 B...

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have had a big year in 2025, but what are they really? Securities? Derivatives? Sportsbooks? They may be all of the above.

Listen to my breakdown on how these markets have evolved over time, and what led to their current rise today. We then dive into the opportunities, risks, and the regulatory challenges that may shape their future.

CHAPTERS

02:54 The Origin of Prediction Markets

06:43 Polymarket, Kalshi, and Modern Prediction Markets

09:16 Regulation and What’s Next

09:31 Bucket A: Policy, Finance, and Economics

13:36 Bucket B: Sports, Entertainment, and Pop Culture

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