The FIDE Candidates Tournament begins on April 4 in Toronto, Canada, and I could not be more excited to see who gets to challenge for the FIDE World Championship. As is tradition on Perpetual Chess, we have a few great guests joining to help discuss the action. First up is 7-time Brazilian champion & Correspondence GM, Rafael Leitão. In addition to a vast resume as a player, Rafael regularly annotates top-level games for Chess.com news coverage. Reviewing these games in detail on a daily basis gives Rafael unique insights into the tendencies of the world’s top players. Rafael and I discuss what to watch for in each player’s performance, fun facts, and what opening choices we might see from each player.
Following Rafael, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman, a/k/a Chess by the Numbers. Tai shares and discusses the win probability of both the open and the women’s candidates, and we also compare the output of Tai’s probabilistic model to the betting markets. Last but not least, I am joined by “On the Queenside,” who has built a large following on Twitter and Lichess for covering Women’s Chess in detail. We discuss whether it is a good idea to run the Women’s Candidates concurrently with the open, and which players we are excited to watch. As always, the timestamps of the guests, as well as the topics and players discussed can be found below.
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0:01- Format notes on the FIDE Candidates, including tournament schedule, tiebreak rules, and the Perpetual Chess’ plan for covering the event.
Mentioned: More info on the Candidates here, including tiebreak info:
More from Chess.com here
09:30- GM Rafael Rafael Leitão joins me for a detailed Candidates discussion!
Mentioned: Rafael’s prior interview was episode 147.
15:00- Can Ian Nepomniatchtchi “threepeat” at the Candidate?
21:50- GM Nijat Abasov.
25:30- GM Fabiano Caruana
Mentioned: Leitao-Caruana 2010
30:00- GM Praggnanandhaa Rameshababu
32:30- Hikaru Nakamura
Mentioned: GM Daniel King’s YT Candidates Previews:
Gelfand-Nakamura 2010
37:45- Alireza Firouzja
44:00- GM Vidit Gujirathi
47:00- GM Gukesh Dommaraju
51:30- Who does Rafael predict will win?
Mentioned: Bwin’s betting market on the Candidates:
54:00- Rafael shares his thoughts on the Women’s Candidates. More info here:
59:00- Rafael discusses his own chess career, and what is new from our prior interview. This includes a compelling argument for Chess960.
Mentioned:GM Luis Paolo Supi, Supi-Carlsen 2020
1:09:00- Thanks to Rafael for joining me! Here is how to keep up with him:
Youtube- https://www.youtube.com/@rafaelleitaogm
X/Twitter- https://twitter.com/rafpig?lang=en
Website- https://rafaelleitao.com/articles/
1:10:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman aka Chess by the Numbers rejoins me to talk Candidates statistiics!
Mentioned: Betting market here
1:31:00- What does Tai’s model say on who is most likely to win the Woman’s Candidates?
1:41:00- Thanks to Tai for joining me! Follow him on X here:
1:42;00- On the Queenside joins. Is it a good idea to have the Women’s Candidates run concurrently with the Open Candidates for the first time?
Mentioned: On the Queenside’s preview of the Reykjavik Open
1:50:00- Be sure to follow On the Queenside on Twitter/X and on Lichess!
Twitter/X
LiChess
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EP 380- FIDE Candidates Wrap Up with GM Erwin L'Ami: Gukesh Ascends as Caruana Suffers a Heartbreaking Setback
EP 379- IM Renier Castellanos on How he Earned the GM Title at Age 41.
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 12 Breakdown (Part 2)- FM Mike Klein on the Player’s Mindsets, Historical Context, and the Alireza Shoe Controversy
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 12 Breakdown (Part 1)- An Epic Finish Awaits, as Naka, Nepo and Gukesh are Tied!
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 10 Breakdown (Part 2)- GM Jan Timman on the tournament so far.
EP 378- Lou Hays- Spending weekends with Fischer and Spassky, Getting to 2100 from Scratch as an Adult, Chess Publishing Then and Now
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 10 Breakdown (Part 1)- Nepo and Gukesh lead Narrowly as Naka and Fabi are in Pursuit
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 7 Breakdown (Part 2)- GM Daniel King on the Tournament So Far
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates Round 7 Breakdown (Part 1)- Nepo and Tan Zhongyi Lead after a Dramatic First Half of the Tournament
EP 377- NM Dan Heisman and NM Laura Smith. Two Accomplished Trainers on Capturing, Counting, and other Chess Concepts To Know
Bonus Pod- FIDE Candidates First 4 Round Breakdown. Nepo leads (As usual). Plus a Fan's Toronto Trip Report
EP 376- Adult Improver Jordan Groff on What it Takes to Make Master in 2024
EP 374- GM Noel Studer- Chess Improvement Q & A- Avoiding Burnout, Addressing Weaknesses, Avoiding Blunders, & Lots More!
EP 373- Carol Ann Caronia: Advice for Chess Parents & Scholastic Teachers from an Author and Longtime Teacher
EP 372- GM Jan Gustafsson: Learning 1. E4, Life after Team Magnus, Chess Cheating, the FIDE Candidates & more
EP 371- GM Josh Friedel- Common Beginner & Intermediate Mistakes, Freestyle Chess, and Advice for Goal-Setting
EP 370- GM Paul van der Sterren- Breakthroughs, Declines, Mindfulness and the Odyssey of a 20+ Year Professional Career
EP 369- NM Robert Ramirez on the difference between Adult and Youth Chess Students, Chess in Cuba, and Why He Loves the Pirc Defense
EP 368- Erik Allebest (Chess.com CEO)- Online Cheating, The Magnus-Hikaru match that fell through, the Chess24 closure & more
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